Leganes vs Eldense Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Leganes 1-0 Eldense.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Leganes, 28% draw, 27% Eldense — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Leganes at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leganes vs Eldense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13L. ZidaneG
- 6G. Aguilar LopezD
- 5I. MiquelD
- 2MarvelD
- 20M. AtienzaM
- 11N. GarciaM
- 10Z. BuurmeesterM
- 8Y. KechtaM
- 7R. PenaM
- 17I. GharbiF
- 19P. SokoF
- 38A. GorrinG
- 31N. LozanoG
- 4R. PulidoD
- 29D. HamansenyaD
- 14D. RodriguezM
- 9A. MillanF
- 22Alex SancrisF
- 18A. CamposF
- 32SuleF
- 1R. VilaG
- 17J. ClementeD
- 5A. G. SerradellD
- 4F. SmandD
- 34J. OlaizolaD
- 18G. MachoM
- 14J. SmithM
- 10FidelM
- 23J. MartinM
- 21D. RuizM
- 9M. CarmonaF
- 36D. Bernabeu
- 13JuanpaG
- 22J. YandaD
- 31A. MarinD
- 24J. MartinezM
- 27C. AmarilloM
- 30D. RodriguezM
- 11M. NietoF
- 19A. IbarrondoF
Form going into Leganes vs Eldense
Leganes
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Oviedo22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Girona16 August 2026
Eldense
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Cadiz22 August 2026
- L0-3away to Almeria17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Leganes | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 15 |
| 16 | Eldense | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leganes vs Eldense
- 5 May 2024Eldense 1–2 LeganesSegunda División
- 10 December 2023Leganes 1–1 EldenseSegunda División
The result against the call
Leganes beat Eldense 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Leganes at 45%. The goal: M. Atienza 90' for Leganes. On expected goals it finished 1.63–1.01.