Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Wisla Plock 2-2 Piast Gliwice.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Wisla Plock, 29% draw, 40% Piast Gliwice — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Piast Gliwice at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12R. LeszczyńskiG
- 4M. Haglind-SangréD
- 35M. KamińskiD
- 34Afonso SilvaD
- 21Ž. RogeljM
- 18J. PrširM
- 16F. HiszpańskiM
- 7O. KobackiM
- 19D. GallapeniM
- 57S. AkereF
- 20Ł. SekulskiF
- 9D. JurićF
- 10S. HamulićF
- 26J. BurekG
- 3M. FlisD
- 91G. KuchkoM
- 44P. MisiakD
- 6K. PomorskiM
- 17A. RadwańskiM
- 88K. SavvidīsM
- 75D. GrilG
- 99E. TwumasiD
- 5Juande RivasD
- 22F. SierraltaD
- 36J. LewickiD
- 90Ivan LimaM
- 31O. LeśniakM
- 27J. ŁabojkoM
- 80Hugo VallejoM
- 10A. KatsantonisF
- 11Leandro SancaF
- 15L. PitanD
- 19S. Ntamack NdimbaF
- 77S. MuchaM
- 12Marcel Mendes-DudzińskiG
- 18O. MaziarzM
- 7Jorge FélixF
- 28F. BorowskiD
- 91Maciej KucharskiF
Form going into Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice
Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa
- L0-1away to Jagiellonia25 October 2026
- W1-0Radomiak Radom19 October 2026
- L0-3away to Wieczysta Kraków9 October 2026
Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa
- W3-1Cracovia Krakow24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gornik Zabrze18 October 2026
- W2-1Widzew Łódź11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 15 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice
- 9 February 2026Piast Gliwice 1–0 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 1 August 2025Wisla Plock 2–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 16 April 2023Piast Gliwice 1–0 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 30 September 2022Wisla Plock 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 13 February 2022Wisla Plock 0–2 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 14 August 2021Piast Gliwice 4–3 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice
Wisla Plock
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Piast Gliwice
GoalsAssists
- Hugo Vallejo51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Piast Gliwice at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Andreas Katsantonis 24' for Piast Gliwice, Oskar·Lesniak 37' for Piast Gliwice, Olaf Kobacki 46' for Wisla Plock, Łukasz Sekulski 67' for Wisla Plock. On expected goals it finished 2.19–1.75.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wisla Plock a 26.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.9% after a win, 27.0% after a draw, 31.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 27.0%.
For Piast Gliwice the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 5.7% going in: 7.2% after a win, 4.3% after a draw, 4.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.3%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 33% / 28% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 31% / 29% / 40%: the biggest move is Wisla Plock's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Wisla Plock win31%▼ −2
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Piast Gliwice win40%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.