23 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Szczecin
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Wisla Krakow.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Pogon Szczecin, 23% draw, 38% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 2.56, 4.35 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Pogon Szczecin at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Juwaraassist: M. Wojciechowski
3'
11'
Jordi Sánchez
Dimitrios Keramitsis
14'
20'
⚽M. Juwara (OG)
⚽L. Wahlqvist
24'
33'
⚽E. Youan
🔁L. Wahlqvistout: H. Ali
46'
🔁M. Juwaraout: D. Churlinov
60'
🔁J. Nsameout: F. Cuic
60'
🔁P. Mukairuout: K. Grosicki
72'
72'
🔁D. Grujcicout: M. Maisonneuve
72'
🔁E. Youanout: A. Rodado
73'
Maxence Maisonneuve
81'
🔁J. Sanchezout: J. Guillemenot
81'
🔁J. Ertlthalerout: M. Kuziemka
🔁M. Wojciechowskiout: K. Acosta
83'
Patryk Dziczek
86'
Kamil Grosicki
89'

Match stats — Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow

40%Possession60%
13Shots14
8On target3
2Corners4
1.35xG0.86

Goals against chances

Pogon Szczecin2 from 1.35 xGmore than the chances were worth
Wisla Krakow2 from 0.86 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Pogon Szczecin 4-1-4-1
  • 77V. CojocaruG
  • 28L. WahlqvistD
  • 13D. KeramitsisD
  • 29L. WillenD
  • 4Leo BorgesD
  • 16P. DziczekM
  • 7M. JuwaraM
  • 8F. UlvestadM
  • 35M. WojciechowskiM
  • 18P. MukairuM
  • 17J. NsameF
Substitutes
  • 33A. PeskovicG
  • 15H. AliD
  • 23B. MendyD
  • 41A. SzalaiD
  • 75A. OssowskiD
  • 6J. BieganskiM
  • 3K. AcostaM
  • 47N. LawaM
  • 11K. GrosickiM
Coach: Oscar Garcia Junyent
Wisla Krakow 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LubikG
  • 34R. GigerD
  • 6A. UrygaD
  • 29D. GrujcicD
  • 52J. KrzyzanowskiD
  • 7J. ErtlthalerM
  • 12J. IgbekemeM
  • 27E. YouanM
  • 41K. DudaM
  • 17M. BozicM
  • 11J. SanchezF
Substitutes
  • 28P. LetkiewiczG
  • 97W. BiedrzyckiD
  • 4R. MikulecD
  • 13M. MaisonneuveD
  • 50M. KutwaD
  • 32O. PlawinskiM
  • 21J. GuillemenotF
  • 51M. KuziemkaM
  • 9A. RodadoF
Coach: Mariusz Jop

Form going into Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow

Pogon Szczecin

  • W3-1Motor Lublin8 August 2026

Wisla Krakow

  • L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Pogon Szczecin7331105+512
5Wisla Krakow84221511+414

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow

  • 23 August 2026Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 11 October 2025Pogon Szczecin 3–3 Wisla KrakowFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 May 2024Pogon Szczecin 1–2 Wisla KrakowCup
  • 18 March 2022Pogon Szczecin 4–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 26 September 2021Wisla Krakow 0–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
  • 19 February 2021Wisla Krakow 2–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow

Pogon Szczecin

No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Wisla Krakow

  • Jordi Sánchez6 goals1 assists
  • Ángel Rodado3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.