7 November 2026, 13:45 UTC

Villefranche vs Quevilly Ligue 3 prediction & result

Stade Armand Chouffet
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Villefranche 0-2 Quevilly.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Villefranche, 26% draw, 36% Quevilly — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Villefranche at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Villefranche0%Draw5%Quevilly95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽A. Diabyassist: B. El Kaddouri
L. Etoga
59'
🔁M. Etuinout: J. Tiehi
66'
🔁L. Etogaout: N. Sabihi
67'
🔁R. Laspallesout: D. Gassama
68'
72'
🔁D. Seckout: M. Jean-Marie
🔁L. Piquionneout: Y. Tade
77'
88'
🔁B. El Kaddouriout: M. Ros
88'
🔁D. Sarrout: W. Tchimbembe
🔁J. Tiehiout: G. Fofana
88'
D. Gassama
90+2'
A. Diakite
90+4'
90+8'
⚽G. Capuano (pen)

Form going into Villefranche vs Quevilly

Villefranche

Ligue 3

  • D1-1away to Orleans31 October 2026
  • W2-1Cannes17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Amiens3 October 2026
  • L1-2Versailles26 September 2026

Quevilly

Ligue 3

  • L0-2away to Bastia31 October 2026
  • W3-2Orleans17 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Cannes3 October 2026
  • D1-1Amiens26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Villefranche conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Villefranche failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Villefranche scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Quevilly conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Quevilly failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Quevilly scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Villefranche122281026-168
10Quevilly124441316-316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Villefranche vs Quevilly

  • 30 January 2026Quevilly 1–2 VillefrancheLigue 3
  • 22 August 2025Villefranche 2–1 QuevillyLigue 3
  • 9 May 2025Villefranche 0–1 QuevillyLigue 3
  • 19 January 2025Quevilly 0–1 VillefrancheLigue 3
  • 29 May 2022Quevilly 2–0 VillefrancheLigue 2
  • 24 May 2022Villefranche 1–3 QuevillyLigue 2

The result against the call

Quevilly won 2–0 at Villefranche. The model had leaned towards a win for Villefranche at 38% and given a win for Quevilly 36%. The goals: A. Diaby 21' for Quevilly, G. Capuano (penalty) 90+8' for Quevilly.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Villefranche a 59.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 52.2% after a win, 61.8% after a draw, 66.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.8%, 7.3 points higher than before the match.

For Quevilly the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 10.9% going in: 6.3% after a win, 10.1% after a draw, 13.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.3%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Villefranche v Quevilly has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 36% / 25% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 38% / 26% / 36%: the biggest move is Quevilly's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Villefranche win38%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Quevilly win36%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.