7 November 2026, 13:45 UTC

Thionville Lusitanos vs Cannes Ligue 3 prediction & result

Stadium Plaine
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Thionville Lusitanos 1-0 Cannes.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Thionville Lusitanos, 28% draw, 39% Cannes — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cannes at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Thionville Lusitanos96%Draw4%Cannes0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
C. Makutungu
60'
🔁O. Sidibeout: B. Oggad
60'
🔁S. Dieout: G. Morgan
⚽D. Luvualuassist: A. Gouletquer
67'
🔁A. Gouletquerout: S. Kalambayi Mukuta
68'
71'
🔁J. Lopezout: A. Kerouedan
71'
🔁L. Hervieuout: C. Ndoye
🔁K. Bouhmidiout: A. Groune
76'
81'
🔁A. N'Diayeout: E. Caumont
90'
C. Goncalves
D. Luvualu
90'

Form going into Thionville Lusitanos vs Cannes

Thionville Lusitanos

Ligue 3

  • D1-1away to Amiens29 October 2026
  • L1-2Versailles17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Le Puy Foot3 October 2026
  • L1-2La Roche VF26 September 2026

Cannes

Ligue 3

  • W2-1Valenciennes31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Villefranche17 October 2026
  • W3-1Quevilly3 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Orleans26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Thionville Lusitanos did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Thionville Lusitanos conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Thionville Lusitanos scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Cannes scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Cannes conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Cannes had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Thionville Lusitanos124441717016
7Cannes12462148+618

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Thionville Lusitanos beat Cannes 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Cannes at 39% and given a win for Thionville Lusitanos 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: D. Luvualu 67' for Thionville Lusitanos.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Thionville Lusitanos a 13.9% chance to finish in the top six: 18.4% after a win, 12.7% after a draw, 9.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.4%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.

For Cannes the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 77.9% going in: 83.7% after a win, 76.5% after a draw, 73.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 73.5%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Thionville Lusitanos v Cannes has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 31% / 28% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 33% / 28% / 39%: the biggest move is Thionville Lusitanos's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Thionville Lusitanos win33%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Cannes win39%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.