Thionville Lusitanos vs Versailles Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Thionville Lusitanos 1-2 Versailles.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Thionville Lusitanos, 25% draw, 34% Versailles — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Thionville Lusitanos at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 16A. Parisot
- 6M. Aljic
- 5J. Atangana
- 23S. Bouzar
- 17D. Luvualu
- 8S. Kilic
- 26E. Montet
- 20B. Diarra
- 11G. Laurens
- 7K. Tubio
- 9K. Bouhmidi
- 30L. Hoel
- 19V. Siat
- 14S. Kalambayi Mukuta
- 10B. Labissiere
- 22J. Moustaid
- 25J. Lauratet
- 21A. Gouletquer
- 30N. Yavorsky
- 5R. Calvet
- 19B. Cisse
- 25D. Adehoumi
- 2J. Santini
- 14R. Basque
- 18J. Leborgne
- 6E. Goumot
- 21S. Cara
- 27A. Etien
- 7S. Guillaume
- 16R. Sallard
- 23R. Tchato
- 28K. Rocha Santos
- 20I. Aouad
- 11A. Zakharyan
- 17A. Kabamba
- 10J. Kalai
Form going into Thionville Lusitanos vs Versailles
Thionville Lusitanos
Ligue 3
- L0-1away to Le Puy Foot3 October 2026
- L1-2La Roche VF26 September 2026
Versailles
Ligue 3
- W1-0Valenciennes3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Villefranche26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Thionville Lusitanos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Versailles | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Versailles won 2–1 at Thionville Lusitanos. The model had leaned towards a win for Thionville Lusitanos at 41% and given a win for Versailles 34%. The goals: S. Cara 22' for Versailles, D. Luvualu 88' for Thionville Lusitanos, J. Santini 90+1' for Versailles.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Thionville Lusitanos a 6.2% chance to finish in the top four: 7.8% after a win, 5.5% after a draw, 3.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.3%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
For Versailles the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 33.9% going in: 41.1% after a win, 32.5% after a draw, 28.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.1%, 7.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.