18 October 2026, 10:15 UTC

Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze
Referee: Patryk Gryckiewicz
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Piast Gliwice.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Gornik Zabrze, 25% draw, 21% Piast Gliwice — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gornik Zabrze at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gornik Zabrze5%Draw92%Piast Gliwice3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Rafał Janickiassist: Erik Janža
5'
7'
⚽Hugo Vallejo
59'
Jakub Lewicki
🔁Sondre Lisethout: Erik Prekop
60'
68'
🔁Jakub Labojkoout: Oskar·Lesniak
68'
🔁Andreas Katsantonisout: Szczepan·Mucha
🔁Peter Federico González Carmonaout: Yvan Ikia Dimi
71'
🔁Maksym Khlanout: Zeidane Inoussa
71'
🔁Paulo Bernardoout: Jarosław Kubicki
85'
86'
🔁Jakub Lewickiout: Elton Fikaj
86'
🔁Samuel Ntamack Ndimbaout: Oliwier Maziarz
89'
Elton Fikaj

Match stats — Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice

53%Possession47%
27Shots10
5On target3
10Corners1
3.12xG0.87

Goals against chances

Gornik Zabrze1 from 3.12 xGless than the chances were worth
Piast Gliwice1 from 0.87 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gornik Zabrze 4-1-4-1
  • 1P. SchulzeG
  • 21O. ZmrzlýD
  • 26R. JanickiD
  • 20Josema SánchezD
  • 64E. JanžaD
  • 6M. HøjholtM
  • 19PeterM
  • 8Paulo BernardoM
  • 82K. UrbańskiM
  • 33M. KhlanM
  • 23S. LisethF
Substitutes
  • 4P. BochniewiczD
  • 66M. DietzD
  • 34B. DurdovM
  • 7Y. Ikia DimiM
  • 27Z. InoussaF
  • 29W. KaniaG
  • 14J. KubickiM
  • 99T. LoskaG
  • 11E. PrekopF
Coach: M. Gašparík
Piast Gliwice 4-4-2
  • 75D. GrilG
  • 99E. TwumasiD
  • 5Juande RivasD
  • 4J. CzerwińskiD
  • 36J. LewickiD
  • 11Leandro SancaM
  • 27J. ŁabojkoM
  • 17Q. BoisgardM
  • 80Hugo VallejoM
  • 10A. KatsantonisF
  • 19S. Ntamack NdimbaF
Substitutes
  • 31O. LeśniakM
  • 90Ivan LimaM
  • 98J. LokiloF
  • 18O. MaziarzM
  • 12Marcel Mendes-DudzińskiG
  • 77S. MuchaM
  • 15L. PitanD
  • 22F. SierraltaD
  • 28F. BorowskiD
Coach: D. Myśliwiec

Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice

Gornik Zabrze

Ekstraklasa

  • W3-1away to Jagiellonia10 October 2026

Piast Gliwice

Ekstraklasa

  • W2-1Widzew Łódź11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Gornik Zabrze149412312+1131
7Piast Gliwice146442420+422

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice

  • 31 January 2026Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
  • 26 July 2025Piast Gliwice 0–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 17 May 2025Piast Gliwice 2–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 24 November 2024Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
  • 10 February 2024Piast Gliwice 1–3 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 5 August 2023Gornik Zabrze 0–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice

Gornik Zabrze

GoalsAssists

  • K. Urbański51

Piast Gliwice

GoalsAssists

  • Hugo Vallejo51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gornik Zabrze at 54% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Rafał Janicki 5' for Gornik Zabrze, Hugo Vallejo 7' for Piast Gliwice. On expected goals it finished 3.12–0.87.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gornik Zabrze a 25.9% chance to win the league: 28.9% after a win, 23.1% after a draw, 18.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 23.1%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

For Piast Gliwice the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 14.0% going in: 20.9% after a win, 14.0% after a draw, 11.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 14.0%.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Gornik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Gornik Zabrze's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Gornik Zabrze win54%▲ +6
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Piast Gliwice win21%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.