30 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg Bundesliga prediction & result

Merkur-Arena, Graz
Referee: Isa Simsek
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Grazer AK 0-4 TSV Hartberg.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Grazer AK, 28% draw, 38% TSV Hartberg — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

TSV Hartberg at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
Markus Schopp
7'
🔁paul komposchout: Lukas Spendlhofer
12'
⚽Marco Hoffmannassist: Angelo Gattermayer
25'
⚽Marco Hoffmannassist: Magnus Dalpiaz
Alexander Hofleitner
27'
🔁Petar Markovicout: Donovan Pines
45'
Christopher Cvetko
47'
55'
Youba Diarra
Peter Michorl
58'
🔁Mark Großeout: Souleyman mandey
58'
63'
⚽Nikolaus Feldhoferassist: Angelo Gattermayer
63'
Nikolaus Feldhofer
66'
⚽Donovan Pines (OG)
71'
🔁Nikolaus Feldhoferout: Tobias Kainz
71'
🔁Marco Hoffmannout: Augustín Urrutia
🔁Alexander Hofleitnerout: Daniel Maderner
74'
🔁Christopher Cvetkoout: Tobias Koch
74'
🔁Tim Trummerout: Leon Klassen
80'
80'
🔁Angelo Gattermayerout: Andrija Radulovic
80'
🔁Magnus Dalpiazout: Luca Pazourek

Match stats — Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg

49%Possession51%
19Shots14
5On target8
4Corners4
1.22xG3.2

Goals against chances

Grazer AK0 from 1.22 xGless than the chances were worth
TSV Hartberg4 from 3.20 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Grazer AK 3-4-3
  • 23C. StankovićG
  • 72Petar MarkovicD
  • 21M. SollbauerD
  • 27Y. OberleitnerD
  • 28AndersonM
  • 34P. MichorlM
  • 24C. CvetkoM
  • 37T. TrummerM
  • 25A. HofleitnerF
  • 11M. GroßeF
  • 10C. LichtenbergerF
Substitutes
  • 7A. SmitsF
  • 6L. HermeshM
  • 48M. GraggerD
  • 32L. KlassenD
  • 8T. KochM
  • 9D. MadernerF
  • 17S. MandeyM
  • 1J. MeierhoferG
  • 2D. PinesD
Coach: G. Scheiblehner
TSV Hartberg 4-2-3-1
  • 91Á. PécsiG
  • 16M. DalpiazD
  • 27K. SchoppD
  • 14P. KomposchD
  • 6Habib CoulibalyD
  • 4B. MarkušM
  • 5Y. DiarraM
  • 7A. GattermayerM
  • 95Nikolaus FeldhoferM
  • 10O. LukicM
  • 22M. HoffmanF
Substitutes
  • 20Paul BratschkoM
  • 11J. DrewF
  • 23T. KainzM
  • 17J. KarnerM
  • 21L. MarićG
  • 2L. PazourekM
  • 49A. RadulovićF
  • 19L. SpendlhoferD
  • 9A. UrrutiaF
Coach: M. Schopp

Form going into Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg

Grazer AK

Bundesliga

  • D1-1away to WSG Wattens24 October 2026
  • L1-6away to Sturm Graz18 October 2026
  • D0-0Red Bull Salzburg10 October 2026

TSV Hartberg

Bundesliga

  • W1-0Wolfsberger AC24 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Rapid Vienna16 October 2026
  • W4-3Austria Lustenau11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Grazer AK12246929-2010
4TSV Hartberg126242319+420

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg

  • 21 February 2026TSV Hartberg 1–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
  • 18 October 2025Grazer AK 0–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 25 April 2025TSV Hartberg 1–1 Grazer AKBundesliga
  • 22 April 2025Grazer AK 0–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 8 December 2024Grazer AK 0–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 31 August 2024TSV Hartberg 1–1 Grazer AKBundesliga

Leading scorers: Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg

Grazer AK

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hofleitner40

TSV Hartberg

GoalsAssists

  • C. Hoffmann61
  • M. Hoffman40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

TSV Hartberg won 4–0 at Grazer AK. The model had made a win for TSV Hartberg its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Marco Hoffmann 12' for TSV Hartberg, Marco Hoffmann 25' for TSV Hartberg, Nikolaus Feldhofer 63' for TSV Hartberg, Donovan Pines (own goal) 66' for TSV Hartberg. On expected goals it finished 1.22–3.20.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Grazer AK a 33.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.7% after a win, 35.4% after a draw, 42.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.5%, 8.6 points higher than before the match.

For TSV Hartberg the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 64.0% going in: 75.6% after a win, 63.4% after a draw, 53.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.6%, 11.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Grazer AK v TSV Hartberg has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 36% / 27% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 34% / 28% / 38%: the biggest move is Grazer AK's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Grazer AK win34%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. TSV Hartberg win38%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.