Iceland
vs
Luxembourg
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Iceland 1–0 Luxembourg
The model makes it 58% Iceland, 26% draw, 16% Luxembourg — fair odds of 1.72, 3.85 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Iceland 1.69, Luxembourg 0.64.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Iceland are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Iceland's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Luxembourg's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Iceland are top on 11 points from 5 games; Luxembourg are bottom on 3 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
- Iceland are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-0 win away to Bulgaria.
- Luxembourg are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Estonia.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 September 2026, ended Luxembourg 0–3 Iceland.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Iceland vs Luxembourg
Has the model earned this number?
Iceland at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Iceland vs Luxembourg
Iceland
UEFA Nations League
- W5-0away to Bulgaria13 November 2026
- D0-0away to Estonia6 October 2026
- W3-0Bulgaria3 October 2026
- W3-0away to Luxembourg29 September 2026
- D1-1Estonia26 September 2026
Luxembourg
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1Estonia13 November 2026
- L0-2Bulgaria6 October 2026
- L0-1away to Estonia3 October 2026
- L0-3Iceland29 September 2026
- W2-1away to Bulgaria26 September 2026
What these results say
- Iceland went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Iceland scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Iceland kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Luxembourg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Luxembourg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Luxembourg failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 11 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Iceland vs Luxembourg
- 29 September 2026Luxembourg 0–3 IcelandUEFA Nations League
- 13 October 2023Iceland 1–1 LuxembourgEuro Championship - Qualification
- 8 September 2023Luxembourg 3–1 IcelandEuro Championship - Qualification
Leading scorers: Iceland and Luxembourg
Iceland
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen51
- O. Óskarsson42
Luxembourg
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on Iceland v Luxembourg has moved
First published on 2 Nov at 49% / 31% / 20% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 58% / 26% / 16%: the biggest move is Iceland's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Iceland win58%▲ +9
- Draw26%▼ −5
- Luxembourg win16%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Iceland the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Iceland against 0.64 for Luxembourg. Iceland's attack/defence rating is 1.06/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.18 for Luxembourg.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 58% for Iceland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Iceland to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Iceland's ratings add 11 points and Luxembourg's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level36%−2
- Iceland's ratings47%+11
- Luxembourg's ratings58%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.