League D - 6 · 16 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Gibraltar vs Malta UEFA Nations League prediction

Europa Sports Park, Gibraltar
Referee: Balazs Berke

Our model says: Gibraltar 0–1 Malta

The model makes it 31% Gibraltar, 33% draw, 36% Malta — fair odds of 3.23, 3.03 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Gibraltar 0.93, Malta 1.03.

Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Gibraltar's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Malta's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Gibraltar are bottom on 2 points from 3 games; Malta are top on 7 points from 3 games — UEFA Nations League, League D.
  • Gibraltar have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Andorra.
  • Malta are unbeaten in their last 3 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Andorra.
  • Last 3 meetings: Malta 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 October 2026, ended Malta 1–1 Gibraltar.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Gibraltar vs Malta

40%
Both teams to score
31%
Over 2.5 goals
69%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Gibraltar win Draw Malta win
  1. 0–015%
  2. 1–114%
  3. 0–114%
  4. 1–012%
  5. 0–27%
  6. 1–27%
  7. 2–16%

Scores read Gibraltar first; the other scorelines share the remaining 24%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Malta at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Gibraltar vs Malta

Gibraltar

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-2away to Andorra13 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Malta1 October 2026
  • D0-0Andorra27 September 2026

Malta

UEFA Nations League

  • W1-0Andorra4 October 2026
  • D1-1Gibraltar1 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Andorra24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Gibraltar302113-22
1Malta321042+27

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Gibraltar vs Malta

  • 1 October 2026Malta 1–1 GibraltarUEFA Nations League
  • 6 September 2023Malta 1–0 GibraltarFriendlies
  • 7 October 2020Malta 2–0 GibraltarFriendlies

How the call on Gibraltar v Malta has moved

First published on 2 Nov at 39% / 31% / 30% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 31% / 33% / 36%: the biggest move is Gibraltar's chance of winning, down 8 points.

  1. Gibraltar win31%▼ −8
  2. Draw33%▲ +2
  3. Malta win36%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Gibraltar Malta
0.58 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.64
1.29 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.19
0.93 Model expected goals (this match) 1.03

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Malta the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Gibraltar against 1.03 for Malta. Gibraltar's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.19 for Malta.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 36% for Malta to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Malta to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Gibraltar's ratings add 2 points and Malta's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Both sides at this match's level32%−2
  4. Gibraltar's ratings34%+2
  5. Malta's ratings36%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.