League C - 6 · 16 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Estonia vs Bulgaria UEFA Nations League prediction

A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Referee: Nenad Minakovic

Our model says: Estonia 1–0 Bulgaria

The model makes it 41% Estonia, 33% draw, 26% Bulgaria — fair odds of 2.44, 3.03 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).

Expected goals: Estonia 1.12, Bulgaria 0.77.

Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to Estonia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Estonia's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Bulgaria's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Estonia are 2nd on 9 points from 5 games; Bulgaria are 3rd on 4 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
  • Estonia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Luxembourg.
  • Bulgaria have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to Iceland.

More Nations League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Estonia vs Bulgaria

37%
Both teams to score
29%
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Estonia win Draw Bulgaria win
  1. 1–016%
  2. 0–016%
  3. 1–114%
  4. 0–111%
  5. 2–09%
  6. 2–17%
  7. 1–25%

Scores read Estonia first; the other scorelines share the remaining 21%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Estonia at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Estonia vs Bulgaria

Estonia

UEFA Nations League

  • W1-0away to Luxembourg13 November 2026
  • D0-0Iceland6 October 2026
  • W1-0Luxembourg3 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Bulgaria29 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Iceland26 September 2026

Bulgaria

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-5Iceland13 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Luxembourg6 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Iceland3 October 2026
  • D0-0Estonia29 September 2026
  • L1-2Luxembourg26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Estonia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Estonia had two goals or fewer.
  • Estonia kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bulgaria failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Estonia523031+29
3Bulgaria5113310-74

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Estonia vs Bulgaria

  • 29 September 2026Bulgaria 0–0 EstoniaUEFA Nations League

How the call on Estonia v Bulgaria has moved

First published on 2 Nov at 36% / 35% / 29% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 41% / 33% / 26%: the biggest move is Estonia's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Estonia win41%▲ +5
  2. Draw33%▼ −2
  3. Bulgaria win26%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Estonia Bulgaria
0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7
0.88 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.4
1.12 Model expected goals (this match) 0.77

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Estonia the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Estonia against 0.77 for Bulgaria. Estonia's attack/defence rating is 0.59/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.4 for Bulgaria.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 41% for Estonia to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Estonia to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Estonia's ratings add 1 point and Bulgaria's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level35%−3
  4. Estonia's ratings36%+1
  5. Bulgaria's ratings41%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.