30 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Waalwijk vs Almere City FC Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Waalwijk 1-2 Almere City FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Waalwijk, 28% draw, 32% Almere City FC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Waalwijk at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Waalwijk0%Draw4%Almere City FC96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
⚽H. el Dahri (pen)
31'
Mees Hoedemakers
41'
James Lawrence
58'
🔁James Lawrenceout: Marley Dors
58'
🔁Jochem Ritmeester Van De Kampout: Damian van Bruggen
58'
🔁Mees Hoedemakersout: Milan de Haan
🔁Virgil Misidjanout: Roy Kuijpers
70'
🔁Azzedine Dkidakout: R. van Hedel
70'
74'
⚽Ferdy Druijfassist: H. el Dahri
75'
🔁H. el Dahriout: Jamie Jacobs
75'
🔁Ferdy Druijfout: Bas Huisman
🔁Tim van de Looout: Nazjir Held
79'
🔁Finn Stokkersout: Haye Van Gemert
79'
⚽Juan Familia-Castilloassist: Jochem Nap
82'
🔁Jochem Napout: Sven van der Plas
87'

Match stats — Waalwijk vs Almere City FC

55%Possession45%
21Shots10
4On target4
5Corners4
1.35xG1.51

Goals against chances

Waalwijk1 from 1.35 xGabout what the chances were worth
Almere City FC2 from 1.51 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Waalwijk 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. SchiksG
  • 33F. Al MazyaniD
  • 4L. van GelderenD
  • 30J. de WijsD
  • 5Juan Carlos Familia-CastilloD
  • 22T. van de LooM
  • 8J. NapM
  • 93V. MisidjanM
  • 24A. DkidakM
  • 11Yorem van der VeenM
  • 27F. StokkersF
Substitutes
  • 42B. KemmerenD
  • 55N. HeldD
  • 25N. BakboordD
  • 17R. KuijpersF
  • 13Xander MulderG
  • 16M. SpenkelinkG
  • 19H. van GemertF
  • 18R. van HedelM
  • 3S. van der PlasD
Coach: Sander Duits
Almere City FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1Wessel SpeelG
  • 2M. WasinskiD
  • 3J. JacobsD
  • 4J. LawrenceD
  • 5T. BijleveldD
  • 14M. HoedemakersM
  • 6E. CornelisseM
  • 17E. PokuM
  • 21H. El DahriM
  • 23J. Ritmeester van de KampM
  • 9F. DruijfF
Substitutes
  • 7B. BurgeringF
  • 11M. DorsF
  • 18Bas HuismanF
  • 10J. JacobsM
  • 20J. KalisvaartM
  • 30J. van der WiltG
  • 22E. van de BlaakD
  • 44D. van BruggenD
  • 19Olivier de NijsM
Coach: Anoush Dastgir

Form going into Waalwijk vs Almere City FC

Waalwijk

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1away to De Graafschap23 October 2026
  • D1-1FC Volendam18 October 2026

Almere City FC

Eerste Divisie

  • L2-3Roda23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Emmen17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Waalwijk154832720+720
2Almere City FC1510143615+2131

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Waalwijk vs Almere City FC

  • 17 March 2026Almere City FC 2–2 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
  • 30 August 2025Waalwijk 2–0 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 2 February 2025Almere City FC 1–4 WaalwijkEredivisie
  • 3 November 2024Waalwijk 2–0 Almere City FCEredivisie
  • 3 August 2024Almere City FC 1–0 WaalwijkFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 April 2024Waalwijk 0–0 Almere City FCEredivisie

Leading scorers: Waalwijk and Almere City FC

Waalwijk

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.

Almere City FC

GoalsAssists

  • F. Druijf103
  • M. Dors54

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Almere City FC won 2–1 at Waalwijk. The model had leaned towards a win for Waalwijk at 40% and given a win for Almere City FC 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: H. el Dahri (penalty) 25' for Almere City FC, Ferdy Druijf 74' for Almere City FC, Juan Familia-Castillo 82' for Waalwijk. On expected goals it finished 1.35–1.51.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Waalwijk a 53.9% chance to finish in the top eight: 60.8% after a win, 51.4% after a draw, 48.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.0%, 5.9 points lower than before the match.

For Almere City FC the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 91.4% going in: 94.2% after a win, 91.9% after a draw, 89.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.2%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Waalwijk v Almere City FC has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Waalwijk's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Waalwijk win40%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Almere City FC win32%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.