30 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Roda vs Jong AZ Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Roda 2-1 Jong AZ.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Roda, 27% draw, 26% Jong AZ — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Roda at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Roda98%Draw2%Jong AZ0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
Mathijs Menu
🔁Cain Seedorfout: Joey Sleegers
30'
⚽Mitchel Paulissenassist: Guilherme Martinho Peixoto
35'
45'
🔁Kevin toppenbergout: Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe
Jerome Deom
55'
57'
🔁Hessel de Witout: Bogdan Budko
⚽Anthony van den Hurkassist: Koen Jansen
61'
64'
Julian Sijbrands
76'
🔁Julian Sijbrandsout: J. Esajas
77'
🔁Jerolldino Bergraafout: Melle Roede
77'
🔁Jasper Hartogout: Rayan Atikallah
79'
⚽Frej Elkjær Andersen
🔁Mitchel Paulissenout: Mokrane Bentoumi
80'
🔁Jerome Deomout: Jeremiah Mensah
80'
85'
Mathijs Menu
🔁Koen Jansenout: Bram Marsman
89'
🔁Guilherme Martinho Peixotoout: X. van den Berg
89'

Match stats — Roda vs Jong AZ

53%Possession47%
13Shots10
6On target5
8Corners4
1.44xG0.87

Goals against chances

Roda2 from 1.44 xGmore than the chances were worth
Jong AZ1 from 0.87 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Roda 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. TreichelG
  • 3M. TolD
  • 33D. Van den BuijsD
  • 15L. BeertenD
  • 17Guilherme Martinho PeixotoM
  • 24J. DéomM
  • 4J. NisbetM
  • 5K. JansenM
  • 6M. PaulissenM
  • 7C. SeedorfM
  • 9A. van den HurkF
Substitutes
  • 14X. van den BergD
  • 8J. MensahM
  • 19N. CrabuM
  • 20M. BentoumiM
  • 22Rayan KhoumsM
  • 25Bram MarsmanD
  • 10F. SchentenF
  • 26J. SleegersF
  • 21M. StojcevicG
Coach: R. Penders
Jong AZ 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. Owusu-OduroG
  • 2J. ZwartD
  • 3Mathijs MenuD
  • 4F. AndersenD
  • 5K. IngeD
  • 8R. RobbemondM
  • 6Julian SijbrandsM
  • 7J. HartogM
  • 10H. de WitM
  • 11K. ToppenbergM
  • 9Jerolldino BergraafF
Substitutes
  • 12K. van OuytselD
  • 16K. ZeggenG
  • 23K. SchilderG
  • 17M. RoedeM
  • 19Saviola Mourinho Simons SaffoeD
  • 18Rick LuijerM
  • 15J. EsajasD
  • 20Bohdan BudkoM
  • 14R. AtikallahD
Coach: Norbert Alblas

Form going into Roda vs Jong AZ

Roda

Eerste Divisie

  • W3-2away to Almere City FC23 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Jong Utrecht19 October 2026

Jong AZ

Eerste Divisie

  • W5-4Helmond Sport23 October 2026
  • D4-4away to VVV Venlo16 October 2026
  • L0-1Den Bosch9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Roda158432118+328
12Jong AZ145273331+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Roda vs Jong AZ

  • 24 April 2026Jong AZ 2–0 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 5 December 2025Roda 2–3 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 7 February 2025Roda 3–3 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 12 August 2024Jong AZ 6–1 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 5 February 2024Jong AZ 1–0 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 6 October 2023Roda 3–1 Jong AZEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Roda and Jong AZ

Roda

GoalsAssists

  • A. van den Hurk90

Jong AZ

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Roda beat Jong AZ 2–1. The model had made a win for Roda its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mitchel Paulissen 35' for Roda, Anthony van den Hurk 61' for Roda, Frej Elkjær Andersen 79' for Jong AZ. Sent off: Mathijs Menu (Jong AZ) 85'. On expected goals it finished 1.44–0.87.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Roda a 71.4% chance to finish in the top eight: 76.7% after a win, 69.1% after a draw, 63.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.7%, 5.3 points higher than before the match.

For Jong AZ the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 32.2% going in: 40.5% after a win, 33.4% after a draw, 27.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.2%, 5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Roda v Jong AZ has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Roda's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Roda win47%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Jong AZ win26%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.