Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

Newport County vs Swindon Town League Two prediction

Rodney Parade, Newport

Our model says: Newport County 1–0 Swindon Town

The model makes it 42% Newport County, 28% draw, 30% Swindon Town — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Newport County 1.49, Swindon Town 1.16.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Newport County's rating is built from 61 League Two matches and Swindon Town's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.

Key facts

  • Newport County are 14th on 19 points from 15 games; Swindon Town are 16th on 19 points from 15 games — League Two.
  • Newport County have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Crewe.
  • Swindon Town have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Grimsby.
  • Last 6 meetings: Swindon Town 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 September 2026, ended Swindon Town 0–2 Newport County.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Newport County vs Swindon Town

54%
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Newport County win Draw Swindon Town win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 0–18%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Newport County first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Newport County at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Newport County vs Swindon Town

Newport County

League Two

  • D2-2away to Crewe14 November 2026
  • W4-1Chesterfield30 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Cheltenham24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Rotherham20 October 2026
  • D1-1York17 October 2026

Swindon Town

League Two

  • L1-4Grimsby14 November 2026
  • W2-1Rotherham31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Bristol Rovers24 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Barnet20 October 2026
  • D1-1Walsall17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Newport County conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Newport County failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Newport County scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Swindon Town scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Swindon Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Swindon Town.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Newport County154742219+319
16Swindon Town155461621-519

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Newport County vs Swindon Town

  • 22 September 2026Swindon Town 0–2 Newport CountyEFL Trophy
  • 11 February 2026Swindon Town 2–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 4 October 2025Newport County 0–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 24 January 2025Newport County 1–2 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 14 September 2024Swindon Town 4–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 3 February 2024Newport County 2–1 Swindon TownLeague Two

Leading scorers: Newport County and Swindon Town

Newport County

GoalsAssists

  • S. Gwengwe50

Swindon Town

GoalsAssists

  • A. Drinan91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Newport County a 0.5% chance of the title and Swindon Town 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Newport County v Swindon Town has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Newport County's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Newport County win42%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Swindon Town win30%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Newport County Swindon Town
0.48 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.45
2.12 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.12
1.49 Model expected goals (this match) 1.16

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Newport County the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Newport County against 1.16 for Swindon Town. Newport County's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.12 for Swindon Town.

Newport County carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.08 for Swindon Town. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 42% for Newport County to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Newport County to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Newport County's ratings add 1 point and Swindon Town's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Newport County's ratings42%+1
  4. Swindon Town's ratings42%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Newport CountySwindon Town
15Matches15
4W 7D 4LRecord5W 4D 6L
22 1.5 per gameGoals scored16 1.1 per game
19 1.3 per gameGoals conceded21 1.4 per game
4 of 15Clean sheets2 of 15
4 of 15Failed to score7 of 15
1 of 2Penalties scored0 of 2
28 1.9 per gameYellow cards25 1.7 per game
0Red cards3
4-2-3-1 12×Usual shape4-3-3 8×

Newport County at home · Swindon Town away

7Played7
4W 3D 0LRecord1W 2D 4L
14–6Goals for – against3–10
2 of 7Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Newport County 15, Swindon Town 15.

Newport County scored 343533
Swindon Town conceded 332318

Newport County score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Swindon Town have let in 3 there.

Swindon Town scored 313314
Newport County conceded 500345

Swindon Town score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Newport County have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Newport County

  • at Port Vale28 Nov · League Twowin 30%
  • vs Walsall1 Dec · League Twowin 35%
  • at Crawley Town12 Dec · League Twowin 38%
  • vs Oldham19 Dec · League Twowin 40%
  • at Exeter City26 Dec · League Twowin 25%

Swindon Town

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.