Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Northampton vs Rochdale League Two prediction

Sixfields Stadium, Northampton

Our model says: Northampton 1–0 Rochdale

The model makes it 46% Northampton, 31% draw, 23% Rochdale — fair odds of 2.17, 3.23 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).

Expected goals: Northampton 1.31, Rochdale 0.76.

Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to Northampton: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Northampton's rating is built from 14 League Two matches and Rochdale's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.

Key facts

  • Northampton are 19th on 15 points from 14 games; Rochdale are 22nd on 15 points from 15 games — League Two.
  • Northampton are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Salford City.
  • Rochdale have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to York.
  • Last 6 meetings: Rochdale 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 11 February 2023, ended Rochdale 1–1 Northampton.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Northampton vs Rochdale

40%
Both teams to score
34%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Northampton win Draw Rochdale win
  1. 1–016%
  2. 1–113%
  3. 0–013%
  4. 2–011%
  5. 0–19%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–25%

Scores read Northampton first; the other scorelines share the remaining 25%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Northampton at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Northampton vs Rochdale

Northampton

League Two

  • D1-1away to Salford City14 November 2026
  • L0-1Oldham3 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Accrington Stanley31 October 2026
  • W2-0Colchester24 October 2026
  • L0-1Tranmere20 October 2026

Rochdale

League Two

  • L0-1York14 November 2026
  • L2-4away to Port Vale31 October 2026
  • L0-5Accrington Stanley24 October 2026
  • D2-2Grimsby20 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Crewe17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.
  • Northampton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Northampton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rochdale did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Rochdale conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Rochdale had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Northampton143651011-115
22Rochdale154381727-1015

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Northampton

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 4% today

Win 3%
Draw 5%
Defeat 6%

Rochdale

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 46% today

Win 38%
Draw 44%
Defeat 49%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Northampton vs Rochdale

  • 11 February 2023Rochdale 1–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 17 September 2022Northampton 3–0 RochdaleLeague Two
  • 26 February 2022Rochdale 1–0 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 21 August 2021Northampton 1–3 RochdaleLeague Two
  • 23 February 2021Northampton 0–0 RochdaleLeague One
  • 24 November 2020Rochdale 1–1 NorthamptonLeague One

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Northampton a 0.1% chance of the title and Rochdale 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Northampton v Rochdale has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 45% / 30% / 25% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 46% / 31% / 23%: the biggest move is Rochdale's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Northampton win46%▲ +1
  2. Draw31%▲ +1
  3. Rochdale win23%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Northampton Rochdale
0.33 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.43
1.46 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.71
1.31 Model expected goals (this match) 0.76

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Northampton the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Northampton against 0.76 for Rochdale. Northampton's attack/defence rating is 0.33/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.71 for Rochdale.

Northampton carry a model rating of 6.17 against 5.93 for Rochdale.

How the model reaches 46% for Northampton to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Northampton to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Northampton's ratings add 2 points and Rochdale's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 46%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level38%−3
  4. Northampton's ratings40%+2
  5. Rochdale's ratings46%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

NorthamptonRochdale
14Matches15
3W 6D 5LRecord4W 3D 8L
10 0.7 per gameGoals scored17 1.1 per game
11 0.8 per gameGoals conceded27 1.8 per game
4 of 14Clean sheets4 of 15
6 of 14Failed to score5 of 15
–Penalties scored–
23 1.6 per gameYellow cards27 1.8 per game
1Red cards3
4-4-2 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 12×

Northampton at home · Rochdale away

7Played7
2W 2D 3LRecord1W 2D 4L
4–4Goals for – against7–13
3 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Northampton 14, Rochdale 15.

Northampton scored 303201
Rochdale conceded 535752
Rochdale scored 303216
Northampton conceded 302141

Rochdale score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Northampton have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Northampton

Rochdale

  • vs Barnet28 Nov · League Twowin 24%
  • at Cheltenham1 Dec · League Twowin 26%
  • at Exeter City12 Dec · League Twowin 19%
  • vs Bristol Rovers19 Dec · League Twowin 36%
  • at Rotherham26 Dec · League Twowin 29%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.