SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SV Elversberg 4-3 FC Augsburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% SV Elversberg, 25% draw, 35% FC Augsburg — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
SV Elversberg at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 20N. KristofG
- 30J. GyamerahD
- 19L. PinckertD
- 31M. RohrD
- 21L. GüntherD
- 43F. KeidelM
- 8Ł. PorębaM
- 25L. PetkovM
- 10Noah DarvichM
- 7M. KrattenmacherM
- 42D. MokwaF
- 15R. AdamF
- 28T. BossG
- 6A. CondéM
- 9N. FutkeuF
- 3F. Le JoncourD
- 2N. MickelsonD
- 17F. SchmahlM
- 24L. SchnellbacherM
- 26L. SirchD
- 1F. DahmenG
- 35Abdulay BahD
- 5C. MatsimaD
- 2C. BrackelmannD
- 27M. WolfM
- 4H. MassengoM
- 32F. RiederM
- 16Hennes BehrensM
- 19R. FellhauerM
- 21A. IbrahimovićM
- 9Rodrigo RibeiroF
- 30A. KadeM
- 14Y. KeitelM
- 10M. KömürM
- 22N. LabrovićG
- 39U. OgunduF
- 37T. SchnitzerM
- 7Seol Young-WooD
- 6J. GouweleeuwD
- 11M. GregoritschF
Form going into SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg
SV Elversberg
Bundesliga
- L0-1away to Union Berlin10 October 2026
FC Augsburg
Bundesliga
- D2-2Bayern München10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg
- 7 August 2015SV Elversberg 1–3 FC AugsburgDFB Pokal
Leading scorers: SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg
SV Elversberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Krattenmacher41
FC Augsburg
GoalsAssists
- M. Gregoritsch50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
SV Elversberg beat FC Augsburg 4–3. The model had made a win for SV Elversberg its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Lukas Petkov 4' for SV Elversberg, Lasse Günther 7' for SV Elversberg, Maximilian Rohr 28' for SV Elversberg, Fabian Rieder (penalty) 45+9' for FC Augsburg, Michael Gregoritsch (penalty) 76' for FC Augsburg, Frederik Schmahl 89' for SV Elversberg, Mert Kömür 90' for FC Augsburg. On expected goals it finished 3.69–3.51.
How the call on SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 43% / 26% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 25% / 35%: the biggest move is FC Augsburg's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- SV Elversberg win40%▼ −3
- Draw25%▼ −1
- FC Augsburg win35%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.