Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Union Santa Fe 2-0 Velez Sarsfield.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Union Santa Fe, 27% draw, 38% Velez Sarsfield — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Velez Sarsfield at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21M. MansillaG
- 27T. RubioD
- 33I. IslaD
- 26J. LudueñaD
- 18L. AyalaD
- 20J. PalaciosM
- 17J. MosqueiraM
- 11M. Luna DialeM
- 22B. CuelloM
- 25C. TarragonaF
- 19M. EstigarribiaF
- 31M. AguirreF
- 38V. J. CerrudoF
- 44T. FagioliD
- 7F. FragapaneM
- 8E. GiacconeM
- 10V. MalcorraM
- 40L. MeuliG
- 34Mateo PeresuttiM
- 15J. PintadoD
- 1T. MarchioriG
- 4J. GarcíaD
- 32Thiago SilveorD
- 16L. MagallánD
- 3Elías GómezD
- 29R. AliendroM
- 8L. RobertoneM
- 11M. PellegriniM
- 22M. LanziniM
- 37J. PolicellaM
- 77R. MartínezF
- 35M. AriasF
- 39T. AguirreF
- 5C. BaezaM
- 19L. CristaldoD
- 18S. EscobarD
- 48Luca FelerM
- 15D. GodoyF
- 21Jano GordonD
- 30L. PiolaF
Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield
Union Santa Fe
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D1-1away to Newell's Old Boys1 November 2026
- W3-1Estudiantes La Plata26 October 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo Riestra20 October 2026
- L0-2Defensa Y Justicia10 October 2026
Velez Sarsfield
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D2-2San Lorenzo31 October 2026
- W5-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago26 October 2026
- W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Lanus12 October 2026
What these results say
- Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Union Santa Fe failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Union Santa Fe scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield
- 27 April 2026Velez Sarsfield 2–2 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 December 2024Union Santa Fe 1–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 July 2023Velez Sarsfield 0–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 August 2022Union Santa Fe 2–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 September 2021Velez Sarsfield 4–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 April 2021Velez Sarsfield 4–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield
Union Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- C. Tarragona172
Velez Sarsfield
GoalsAssists
- R. Martínez132
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Union Santa Fe beat Velez Sarsfield 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Velez Sarsfield at 38% and given a win for Union Santa Fe 35%. The goals: Cristian Tarragona (penalty) 12' for Union Santa Fe, Cristian Tarragona 28' for Union Santa Fe. Sent off: Thiago Silvero (Velez Sarsfield) 10'. On expected goals it finished 1.94–0.50.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Union Santa Fe a 14.0% chance to finish in the top eight: 40.8% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.8%, 26.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Union Santa Fe v Velez Sarsfield has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 27% / 38%: the biggest move is Velez Sarsfield's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Union Santa Fe win35%▼ −1
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Velez Sarsfield win38%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.