NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: NEC Nijmegen 3-1 Omonia Nicosia.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% NEC Nijmegen, 30% draw, 33% Omonia Nicosia — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
NEC Nijmegen at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. CrettazG
- 73Gabriel BrásD
- 4P. SchuursD
- 22A. KaplanD
- 6D. NejašmićM
- 99Clement BischoffM
- 20N. LebretonM
- 35Jamiro MonteiroM
- 77A. ThomasM
- 9T. CheryF
- 30B. LinssenF
- 11W. WillumssonM
- 24Deveron FonvilleD
- 38Joep GenesteG
- 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
- 34Kevin KersF
- 42Y. MoslihD
- 12N. PolsterG
- 3P. SandlerD
- 14K. SierhuisF
- 1T. KaminskiG
- 21M. MayambelaD
- 5S. CoulibalyD
- 37Ľ. ŠatkaD
- 93J. DuverneD
- 74P. AndreouM
- 14M. MarićM
- 11EwandroM
- 17F. TănaseM
- 7J. MontnorM
- 99L. DionyF
- 22M. TankovicF
- 27S. SimičD
- 85A. NeophytouF
- 78Pantelis MichailG
- 96Athos KounounisD
- 92C. PanagiotisM
- 20L. BrouwersM
- 40FabianoG
- 90C. KonstantinidisD
Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia
NEC Nijmegen
UEFA Europa League
- W4-2away to Dinamo Zagreb22 October 2026
- D1-1Levski Sofia15 October 2026
- L0-5away to Juventus17 September 2026
Omonia Nicosia
UEFA Europa League
- L1-4Benfica22 October 2026
- W3-0away to Celje15 October 2026
- W1-0Celta Vigo16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: NEC Nijmegen and Omonia Nicosia
NEC Nijmegen
GoalsAssists
- T. Chery31
- B. Linssen31
Omonia Nicosia
GoalsAssists
- L. Diony50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
NEC Nijmegen beat Omonia Nicosia 3–1. The model had made a win for NEC Nijmegen its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Loïs Diony 23' for Omonia Nicosia, Bryan Linssen 50' for NEC Nijmegen, Clement Bischoff 74' for NEC Nijmegen, Bryan Linssen 76' for NEC Nijmegen. On expected goals it finished 1.56–0.73.
How the call on NEC Nijmegen v Omonia Nicosia has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 27% / 27% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 37% / 30% / 33%: the biggest move is Omonia Nicosia's chance of winning, down 13 points.
- NEC Nijmegen win37%▲ +10
- Draw30%▲ +3
- Omonia Nicosia win33%▼ −13
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often NEC Nijmegen's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Omonia Nicosia's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.