25 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem Ligat Ha'al prediction & result

HaMoshava Stadium, Petah Tikva
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Hapoel Petah Tikva 0-1 Beitar Jerusalem.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% Hapoel Petah Tikva, 26% draw, 54% Beitar Jerusalem — fair odds of 5.00, 3.85 and 1.85.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Beitar Jerusalem at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hapoel Petah Tikva0%Draw3%Beitar Jerusalem97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Or Israelov
10'
12'
⚽Yarden Shua (pen)
Stav Israeli
33'
Yves Erick Bile
37'
37'
Yarden Shua
47'
Nana Kwame Antwi
65'
🔁Shon Weissmanout: Azo natan ori
🔁Tomer Altmanout: Itay Ehud
71'
🔁Kimvuidi Keikie Karimout: Hamidou Keyta
71'
72'
🔁Tomer Yosefiout: Adi Menachem Yona
72'
🔁Omer Atziliout: Eugene Ansah
🔁Roei Levyout: Edmond Asante
77'
🔁Harel Shalomout: Yazen Nassar
83'
🔁Euclides·Tavares Andradeout: Noam Cohen
83'
83'
🔁Yarden Shuaout: Dagats Worko
Itay Ehud
88'
90+5'
•Boris Enow Takang

Match stats — Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem

44%Possession56%
9Shots17
2On target5
0Corners2
0.45xG1.91

Goals against chances

Hapoel Petah Tikva0 from 0.45 xGabout what the chances were worth
Beitar Jerusalem1 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hapoel Petah Tikva 4-4-2
  • 1O. KatzG
  • 12S. IsraeliD
  • 5A. Moucketou-MoussoundaD
  • 20O. IsraelovD
  • 3H. ShalomD
  • 77CléM
  • 29B. GontranM
  • 8T. AltmanM
  • 7R. LevyM
  • 9E. BilleF
  • 26K. KimvuidiF
Substitutes
  • 14E. AsanteM
  • 15Nachman Yacov Vita AsalD
  • 28Noam CohenM
  • 34Omri CohenF
  • 6Etai EhudM
  • 33Zohar GrinbergD
  • 11H. KeytaF
  • 18A. MashiahG
  • 72Y. NassarD
Coach: O. Peretz
Beitar Jerusalem 4-3-3
  • 55Miguel SilvaG
  • 2N. AntwiD
  • 4B. CarabalíD
  • 44L. GadraniD
  • 11T. MuziD
  • 30T. YosefiM
  • 40B. EnowM
  • 80Alexis SernaM
  • 77O. AtziliF
  • 19S. WeissmanF
  • 7Y. ShuaF
Substitutes
  • 22Y. OzerG
  • 26D. WorkoM
  • 15N. MucheM
  • 14R. ElimelechD
  • 5G. CohenD
  • 8Z. ShimolM
  • 23O. N. AzoF
  • 13E. AnsahF
  • 10A. YonaM
Coach: Almog Cohen

Form going into Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem

Hapoel Petah Tikva

Ligat Ha'al

  • L0-2away to Bnei Sakhnin17 October 2026
  • L0-3Maccabi Netanya10 October 2026

Beitar Jerusalem

Ligat Ha'al

  • D0-0Maccabi Tel Aviv19 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Hapoel Ramat Gan11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Hapoel Petah Tikva10208517-126
4Beitar Jerusalem105321411+318

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem

  • 19 May 2026Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–0 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
  • 28 April 2026Beitar Jerusalem 3–1 Hapoel Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
  • 17 January 2026Hapoel Petah Tikva 1–3 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
  • 4 October 2025Beitar Jerusalem 5–2 Hapoel Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
  • 21 April 2024Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–2 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
  • 30 January 2024Beitar Jerusalem 2–2 Hapoel Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al

Leading scorers: Hapoel Petah Tikva and Beitar Jerusalem

Hapoel Petah Tikva

No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Beitar Jerusalem

GoalsAssists

  • O. Atzili33
  • E. Ansah31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Beitar Jerusalem won 1–0 at Hapoel Petah Tikva. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Beitar Jerusalem at 54%. The goal: Yarden Shua (penalty) 12' for Beitar Jerusalem. On expected goals it finished 0.45–1.91.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hapoel Petah Tikva a 40.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 26.5% after a win, 39.7% after a draw, 45.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.2%, 4.8 points higher than before the match.

For Beitar Jerusalem the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 96.1% going in: 97.8% after a win, 95.2% after a draw, 93.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 97.8%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hapoel Petah Tikva v Beitar Jerusalem has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 26% / 27% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 20% / 26% / 54%: the biggest move is Beitar Jerusalem's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Hapoel Petah Tikva win20%▼ −6
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Beitar Jerusalem win54%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.