FC Thun vs FC Lugano Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Thun 2-3 FC Lugano.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% FC Thun, 22% draw, 59% FC Lugano — fair odds of 5.26, 4.55 and 1.69.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Swiss Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
FC Lugano at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Thun vs FC Lugano
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. SteffenG
- 47F. FehrD
- 54L. PassavantD
- 5N. BürgyD
- 18T. StrannegårdD
- 70N. ReichmuthM
- 16J. RothM
- 13N. ZoukitM
- 30N. MaierM
- 9F. DursunF
- 96B. LabeauF
- 26N. ChristofferssonF
- 20R. BraschiF
- 17A. BalarubanD
- 37L. DählerD
- 52Adam IlicM
- 15P. KristalM
- 14M. KäitM
- 80S. LengenF
- 25T. SpycherG
- 16D. von BallmoosG
- 4D. KelvinD
- 17L. MaiD
- 3H. DelcroixD
- 2B. KarimovM
- 25U. BislimiM
- 8A. GrgićM
- 21Y. CimignaniM
- 30D. MoncadaF
- 91K. BehrensF
- 24E. PihlströmF
- 9A. AjetiF
- 7E. AlioskiD
- 18J. BichselD
- 22B. CastroF
- 26Martim MarquesD
- 27Daniel Dos SantosM
- 28F. GebhardtG
- 14A. KendouciM
- 46M. ZanottiD
Form going into FC Thun vs FC Lugano
FC Thun
Super League
- L2-4away to FC Zurich10 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026
FC Lugano
Super League
- W4-0FC Luzern10 October 2026
- W4-0away to Lausanne20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Switzerland Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC Thun | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 14 |
| 1 | FC Lugano | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 15 | +21 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs FC Thun
FC Lugano and FC Thun have met 7 times in the records we hold, FC Lugano has won 5 of them to FC Thun's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
FC Lugano won the last one 3–2 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 |
| FC Thun | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 12 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Super LeagueFC Thun 2–3 FC Lugano - 25 Apr 2026
Super LeagueFC Thun 0–1 FC Lugano - 4 Apr 2026
Super LeagueFC Lugano 1–0 FC Thun - 22 Nov 2025
Super LeagueFC Thun 0–1 FC Lugano - 27 Jul 2025
Super LeagueFC Lugano 1–2 FC Thun - 10 Feb 2022
Schweizer CupFC Thun 3–4 FC Lugano - 15 Jul 2020
Super LeagueFC Lugano 1–1 FC Thun
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, FC Lugano's attack rates 5% above FC Thun's, and FC Lugano concede 46% fewer than FC Thun. That gives FC Lugano the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: FC Thun and FC Lugano
FC Thun
GoalsAssists
- B. Labeau61
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- Daniel Dos Santos51
- D. Moncada51
- Y. Cimignani40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Lugano won 3–2 at FC Thun. The model had made a win for FC Lugano its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Dereck Moncada 34' for FC Lugano, Nassim Zoukit 37' for FC Thun, Uran Bislimi 49' for FC Lugano, Albian Ajeti 76' for FC Lugano, Riccardo Braschi (penalty) 88' for FC Thun. On expected goals it finished 1.90–1.70.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Thun a 35.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.9% after a win, 31.1% after a draw, 39.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.6%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.
For FC Lugano the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 89.5% going in: 92.0% after a win, 86.9% after a draw, 84.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.0%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.