31 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Verl vs SV Wehen 3. Liga prediction & result

Sportclub Arena, Verl
Referee: Simon Schreiner
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Verl 1-4 SV Wehen.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Verl, 27% draw, 30% SV Wehen — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Verl at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Verl0%Draw5%SV Wehen95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽Lukas Schleimer
⚽Almin Mesanovic
29'
Noah König
49'
53'
⚽Marcus Mullerassist: Raul Paula
🔁M. Kaubeout: Andre Leipold
62'
🔁Fabian Wessigout: Antonio Foti
62'
69'
🔁Roberto Massimoout: Niklas May
Andre Leipold
72'
🔁Janne Bernerout: Alem Japaur
77'
81'
🔁Raul Paulaout: Moritz Flotho
82'
🔁Marcus Mullerout: Robin Kalem
83'
Lukas Schleimer
🔁Paul Lehmannout: Emmanuel Bamba
85'
🔁Dennis Waidnerout: Bilal Yalcinkaya
85'
90+1'
Moritz Flotho
90+1'
🔁Max Brandtout: Michael Schultz
90+1'
🔁Lukas Schleimerout: Tarik Gözüsirin
90+2'
⚽Robin Kalemassist: Fabian Greilinger
90+4'
⚽Niklas Mayassist: Moritz Flotho

Match stats — Verl vs SV Wehen

68%Possession32%
19Shots10
7On target6
10Corners1

Line-ups

Verl 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. SchlieckG
  • 14P. LehmannD
  • 22N. KönigD
  • 2Raphael AraoyeD
  • 34Janne BernerD
  • 18F. WessigM
  • 8D. WaidnerM
  • 11M. KaubeM
  • 30A. MešanovićM
  • 23K. RabihićM
  • 25T. HeikeF
Substitutes
  • 29Emmanuel BambaM
  • 21M. ClausenM
  • 26A. FótiM
  • 9A. JapaurF
  • 20A. LeipoldF
  • 17Y. OttoM
  • 32F. PekruhlG
  • 5Nick SeidelD
  • 10B. YalcinkayaM
Coach: Orest Shala
SV Wehen 4-1-4-1
  • 16F. StritzelG
  • 17Ben NinkD
  • 19F. HübnerD
  • 15J. JanitzekD
  • 18F. GreilingerD
  • 37M. BrandtM
  • 22R. MassimoM
  • 7L. SchleimerM
  • 6G. FechnerM
  • 32R. PaulaM
  • 21M. MüllerF
Substitutes
  • 45I. Ati AllahM
  • 31N. BrdarG
  • 20Ayoub ChaikhounM
  • 28M. FlothoF
  • 11T. GözüsirinM
  • 29P. HercherD
  • 10R. KalemM
  • 5N. MayD
  • 14M. SchultzD
Coach: J. Seitz

Form going into Verl vs SV Wehen

Verl

3. Liga

  • L1-3away to FC Viktoria Köln24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Hoffenheim II18 October 2026
  • D2-2SSV Jahn Regensburg14 October 2026

SV Wehen

3. Liga

  • W7-1SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach24 October 2026
  • D0-0away to SSV Jahn Regensburg17 October 2026
  • W3-0Alemannia Aachen14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Verl133371727-1012
4SV Wehen136342617+921

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Verl vs SV Wehen

  • 25 January 2026SV Wehen 2–1 Verl3. Liga
  • 9 August 2025Verl 2–2 SV Wehen3. Liga
  • 18 January 2025SV Wehen 0–1 Verl3. Liga
  • 3 August 2024Verl 2–2 SV Wehen3. Liga
  • 13 May 2023SV Wehen 2–1 Verl3. Liga
  • 12 November 2022Verl 1–1 SV Wehen3. Liga

Leading scorers: Verl and SV Wehen

Verl

No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

SV Wehen

GoalsAssists

  • R. Massimo33
  • R. Kalem32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

SV Wehen won 4–1 at Verl. The model had leaned towards a win for Verl at 43% and given a win for SV Wehen 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Lukas Schleimer 19' for SV Wehen, Almin Mesanovic 29' for Verl, Marcus Muller 53' for SV Wehen, Robin Kalem 90+2' for SV Wehen, Niklas May 90+4' for SV Wehen.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Verl a 9.5% chance to finish in the bottom four: 7.0% after a win, 10.7% after a draw, 11.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.8%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

For SV Wehen the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 11.5% going in: 15.4% after a win, 10.1% after a draw, 8.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.4%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Verl v SV Wehen has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 27% / 30%: the biggest move is Verl's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Verl win43%▼ −6
  2. Draw27%=
  3. SV Wehen win30%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.