Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK Premyer Liqa prediction & result
Final score: Imisli FK 2-1 Şamaxı FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Imisli FK, 31% draw, 36% Şamaxı FK — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Şamaxı FK at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1Y. Imanov
- 14B. Hasanalizada
- 19A. Salahly
- 77F. Nabiyev
- 5I. Inqilably
- 55M. Alakbarov
- 13R. Viegas
- 21Ronaldo
- 9D. Dos Santos
- 23Diogo Rollo
- 80Deco
- 22S. Mammadzada
- 17S. Faracov
- 70M. Tahirov
- 3T. Yusifli
- 30K. Mursalli
- 29E. Banguera
- 10D. Cardoso
- 8J. Hernandez
- 1Ricardo Fernandes
- 80H. Ismayilov
- 5E. Rustamov
- 97O. Mammadov
- 25F. Marques
- 13R. Apolinario
- 9T. Akhvlediani
- 11A. Bouali
- 3Jota
- 4R. F. Pereira Pacheco
- 52A. Moumini
- 62A. Seyiahmadov
- 96N. Qarazoglu
- 14U. Cahangirov
- 2F. Xeyrullayev
- 7E. Suleymanov
- 77O. Tahmazli
- 88H. Shiraliyev
- 10E. Adilkhanov
- 66C. Bagyrzada
Form going into Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK
Imisli FK
Premyer Liqa
- W1-0Turan18 October 2026
- L0-2Qarabag11 October 2026
Şamaxı FK
Premyer Liqa
- W3-2Safa Baku16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Zira10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Imisli FK | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 11 |
| 7 | Şamaxı FK | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK
- 8 March 2026Şamaxı FK 0–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
- 22 February 2026Imisli FK 0–0 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 7 November 2025Şamaxı FK 1–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
- 29 March 2024Imisli FK 0–0 Şamaxı FKBirinci Dasta
- 14 December 2023Şamaxı FK 0–0 Imisli FKBirinci Dasta
- 28 September 2023Imisli FK 0–3 Şamaxı FKBirinci Dasta
The result against the call
Imisli FK beat Şamaxı FK 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Şamaxı FK at 36% and given a win for Imisli FK 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: D. Dos Santos 17' for Imisli FK, A. Shuaibu 64' for Şamaxı FK, S. Faracov (penalty) 90+1' for Imisli FK.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Imisli FK a 19.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 13.8% after a win, 18.9% after a draw, 23.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.8%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.
For Şamaxı FK the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 21.1% going in: 25.7% after a win, 18.2% after a draw, 17.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.5%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.