30 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven Eerste Divisie prediction & result

GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Helmond Sport 3-2 FC Eindhoven.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Helmond Sport, 28% draw, 31% FC Eindhoven — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Helmond Sport at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽Siegert Baartmansassist: Rayan·Buifrahi
Mauro Lenaerts
36'
37'
Junior Poortvliet
45+1'
⚽Vicente Besuijen
Dean·Huiberts
56'
🔁Dean·Huibertsout: Helgi Fróði Ingason
56'
🔁Mauro Lenaertsout: Pol Llonch
56'
Helgi Fróði Ingason
61'
63'
Clint Essers
63'
🔁Vicente Besuijenout: antonio bazdaric
63'
🔁Hugo Deenenout: Amir Bryson
⚽Owen Renfrum (OG)
64'
🔁Michel Simon Ludwigout: Kiton Ekoli
71'
72'
Amir Bryson
74'
🔁Junior Poortvlietout: Luc Netten
Rayen van Bree
80'
🔁Thomas Pollout: Tijn Landheer
84'
🔁Rayen van Breeout: Livio Cicero
84'
87'
🔁Rayan·Buifrahiout: Niek Munsters
87'
🔁Siegert Baartmansout: Rens Boon
⚽Lovro Golicassist: Kiton Ekoli
88'
⚽Kiton Ekoli
90+4'

Match stats — Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven

57%Possession43%
16Shots9
3On target3
6Corners2
1.72xG0.6

Goals against chances

Helmond Sport3 from 1.72 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Eindhoven2 from 0.60 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Helmond Sport 4-4-2
  • 1M. BergsenG
  • 2R. van BreeD
  • 4B. KoglinD
  • 14Lovro GoličD
  • 5T. PollD
  • 10D. HuibertsM
  • 44Xander van der VeldeM
  • 6M. LudwigM
  • 34T. EssakkatiM
  • 94Mauro LenaertsF
  • 9L. BajramiF
Substitutes
  • 11L. CiceroM
  • 30K. EkoliF
  • 23A. El MaachG
  • 19H. IngasonM
  • 43T. LandheerD
  • 8Pol LlonchM
  • 35N. MeissnerF
  • 3F. Van Den EyndenD
  • 47Dayen GeertsM
Coach: Frédéric Frans
FC Eindhoven 4-4-2
  • 1J. BorgmansG
  • 22C. EssersD
  • 44O. RenfrumD
  • 4Predrag JevtićD
  • 20Raf van de RietD
  • 28R. BuifrahiM
  • 8X. BlommeM
  • 6G. BeaumontM
  • 77V. BesuijenM
  • 19Kevin FerreiraF
  • 7H. DeenenF
Substitutes
  • 21A. OzcanF
  • 25Lennon SmuldersM
  • 17L. NettenD
  • 13A. BrysonF
  • 5R. BoonD
  • 18Antonio BaždarićM
  • 23Gideon ConstanciaF
  • 27E. EksiF
  • 30N. FancitoG
Coach: Jan Poortvliet

Form going into Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven

Helmond Sport

Eerste Divisie

  • L4-5away to Jong AZ23 October 2026
  • L0-2NAC Breda16 October 2026

FC Eindhoven

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-2Jong PSV U2123 October 2026
  • L0-1Vitesse16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Helmond Sport153392637-1112
17FC Eindhoven154292032-1214

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven

  • 24 April 2026FC Eindhoven 1–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
  • 26 September 2025Helmond Sport 1–0 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
  • 28 March 2025FC Eindhoven 2–2 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
  • 22 November 2024Helmond Sport 3–4 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
  • 3 May 2024Helmond Sport 2–0 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
  • 20 October 2023FC Eindhoven 1–2 Helmond SportEerste Divisie

The result against the call

Helmond Sport beat FC Eindhoven 3–2. The model had made a win for Helmond Sport its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Siegert Baartmans 20' for FC Eindhoven, Vicente Besuijen 45+1' for FC Eindhoven, Owen Renfrum (own goal) 64' for Helmond Sport, Lovro Golic 88' for Helmond Sport, Kiton Ekoli 90+4' for Helmond Sport. On expected goals it finished 1.72–0.60.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Helmond Sport a 47.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 40.4% after a win, 50.4% after a draw, 56.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.4%, 7.5 points lower than before the match.

For FC Eindhoven the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.6% going in: 21.0% after a win, 30.3% after a draw, 35.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.2%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.