31 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

MVV vs VVV Venlo Eerste Divisie prediction & result

De Geusselt, Maastricht
Full time1 – 2

Final score: MVV 1-2 VVV Venlo.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% MVV, 26% draw, 48% VVV Venlo — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

VVV Venlo at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

MVV0%Draw4%VVV Venlo96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
🔁L. Schmidtout: Mattheos Tsigkas
🔁Robert Klaasenout: Mika Luijendijk
36'
39'
⚽Mattheos Tsigkasassist: Ismail Oulad M'Hand
45+3'
⚽Eanna Clancyassist: Lars de Blok
51'
Eanna Clancy
⚽Lennerd Daneels (pen)
52'
66'
Youri Schoonderwaldt
68'
🔁Nassim Ait Mouhouout: Edhy Zuliani
68'
🔁Tristan Schenkhuizenout: Luis Gorlich
🔁Olivier·Dumontout: Toni Vinogradac
78'
🔁Thijme Verheijenout: Noa El Hamdaoui
78'
81'
🔁Thomas Janssenout: Philip Heise
87'
Ismail Oulad M'Hand

Match stats — MVV vs VVV Venlo

68%Possession32%
9Shots9
3On target6
7Corners4
1.21xG0.94

Goals against chances

MVV1 from 1.21 xGabout what the chances were worth
VVV Venlo2 from 0.94 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

MVV 4-2-3-1
  • 1H. WentgesG
  • 17S. WegenD
  • 6F. DickeD
  • 22Sven BoulandD
  • 25Yael LiesdekD
  • 18E. SierraM
  • 16R. KlaasenM
  • 21D. AsanteM
  • 10O. DumontM
  • 7L. DaneelsM
  • 11T. VerheijenF
Substitutes
  • 20A. AmgarM
  • 14M. KuipersF
  • 12S. van der HeijdenG
  • 9T. VinogradacF
  • 33Tristan BombleD
  • 29O. ZimuanganaF
  • 34Samy MoumniF
  • 19Mika LuijendijkM
  • 23V. GoffingsG
Coach: A. Jonker
VVV Venlo 4-2-3-1
  • 13Y. SchoonderwaldtG
  • 14Raf VullersD
  • 4É. ClancyD
  • 33G. BlancquartD
  • 5Lars de BlokD
  • 6A. VerstraetenM
  • 38Tristan SchenkhuizenM
  • 19Thomas JanssenM
  • 8Ismail Oulad M'HandM
  • 11N. Ait MouhouM
  • 17L. SchmidtF
Substitutes
  • 22Zidane TaylanG
  • 34A. RaisF
  • 7E. ZulianiF
  • 31M. DavisD
  • 15Tijn JoostenD
  • 43D. HendrixF
  • 16P. HeiseD
  • 21L. GörlichD
  • 1T. DoornbuschG
Coach: Marinus Dijkhuizen

Form going into MVV vs VVV Venlo

MVV

Eerste Divisie

  • D2-2away to Den Bosch23 October 2026
  • L1-5Heracles18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to NAC Breda9 October 2026

VVV Venlo

Eerste Divisie

  • W4-2away to Dordrecht24 October 2026
  • D4-4Jong AZ16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8MVV146261929-1020
3VVV Venlo159243824+1429

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: MVV vs VVV Venlo

  • 13 March 2026MVV 2–1 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 21 September 2025VVV Venlo 1–0 MVVEerste Divisie
  • 9 February 2025VVV Venlo 0–0 MVVEerste Divisie
  • 13 October 2024MVV 2–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 10 May 2024MVV 2–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 13 August 2023VVV Venlo 1–3 MVVEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: MVV and VVV Venlo

MVV

GoalsAssists

  • O. Dumont51

VVV Venlo

GoalsAssists

  • É. Clancy51
  • L. Schmidt51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VVV Venlo won 2–1 at MVV. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for VVV Venlo at 48%. The goals: Mattheos Tsigkas 39' for VVV Venlo, Eanna Clancy 45+3' for VVV Venlo, Lennerd Daneels (penalty) 52' for MVV. On expected goals it finished 1.21–0.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave MVV a 29.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.8% after a win, 28.0% after a draw, 32.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.9%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

For VVV Venlo the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 89.8% going in: 92.4% after a win, 88.9% after a draw, 87.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.4%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on MVV v VVV Venlo has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 27% / 27% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 26% / 26% / 48%: the biggest move is VVV Venlo's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. MVV win26%▼ −1
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. VVV Venlo win48%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.