Vitesse
vs
Jong AZ
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Vitesse 2–1 Jong AZ
The model makes it 49% Vitesse, 26% draw, 25% Jong AZ — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Vitesse 1.82, Jong AZ 1.17.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Vitesse's rating is built from 51 Eerste Divisie matches and Jong AZ's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Vitesse are 11th on 18 points from 13 games; Jong AZ are 12th on 17 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Vitesse have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Jong Ajax.
- Jong AZ have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Almere City FC.
- Last 4 meetings: Vitesse 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Vitesse 2–0 Jong AZ.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vitesse vs Jong AZ
Has the model earned this number?
Vitesse at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vitesse vs Jong AZ
Vitesse
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1away to Jong Ajax2 November 2026
- L0-2Emmen23 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Eindhoven16 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC Volendam9 October 2026
- D2-2NAC Breda3 October 2026
Jong AZ
Eerste Divisie
- L1-3Almere City FC6 November 2026
- L1-2away to Roda30 October 2026
- W5-4Helmond Sport23 October 2026
- D4-4away to VVV Venlo16 October 2026
- L0-1Den Bosch9 October 2026
What these results say
- Vitesse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitesse conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vitesse had two goals or fewer.
- Jong AZ conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jong AZ failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jong AZ scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Vitesse | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 | Jong AZ | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Vitesse
Chance to finish in the top eight · 53% today
Jong AZ
Chance to finish in the top eight · 27% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Vitesse vs Jong AZ
- 27 February 2026Vitesse 2–0 Jong AZEerste Divisie
- 12 September 2025Jong AZ 4–0 VitesseEerste Divisie
- 4 April 2025Vitesse 2–2 Jong AZEerste Divisie
- 13 September 2024Jong AZ 0–1 VitesseEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Vitesse and Jong AZ
Vitesse
GoalsAssists
- N. Bannis103
Jong AZ
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on Vitesse v Jong AZ has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 49% / 26% / 25%: the biggest move is Vitesse's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Vitesse win49%▲ +2
- Draw26%=
- Jong AZ win25%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vitesse the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Vitesse against 1.17 for Jong AZ. Vitesse's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/2.15 for Jong AZ.
How the model reaches 49% for Vitesse to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vitesse to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Vitesse's ratings change nothing and Jong AZ's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Vitesse's ratings45%±0
- Jong AZ's ratings49%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Vitesse at home · Jong AZ away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Vitesse 13, Jong AZ 14.
Vitesse score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Jong AZ have let in 9 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Vitesse
- at Dordrecht27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- vs VVV Venlo4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
- vs Helmond Sport11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 54%
Jong AZ
- at Jong Ajax23 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- vs FC OSS27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 45%
- at Waalwijk4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
- vs NAC Breda11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 38%
- at Helmond Sport18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.