25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian Premiership prediction & result

Fir Park, Motherwell
Referee: D. Nicolson
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Motherwell 0-2 Heart of Midlothian.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Motherwell, 25% draw, 38% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 2.70, 4.00 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Heart of Midlothian at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Motherwell0%Draw1%Heart of Midlothian99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
Malachi Walcott
29'
⚽Claudio Rafael Soares Bragaassist: Sabah Kerjota
Tom Sparrow
41'
57'
Sabah Kerjota
59'
Jamie McCart
🔁Martin Moormannout: Jamie·Knight Lebel
61'
64'
🔁Tomas Bent Magnussonout: Laurent mendy
65'
🔁Sabah Kerjotaout: Calvin Miller
🔁Jordan McGheeout: Jardell Kanga
65'
🔁Sebastian Palmer-Houldenout: Eythor Bjørgolfsson
65'
77'
Rogers Mato
Ibrahim Said
79'
Tawanda Maswanhise
81'
🔁Tom Sparrowout: Stephen O'Donnell
82'
86'
⚽Calvin Miller
87'
🔁James wilsonout: Yan Dhanda
88'
🔁Claudio Rafael Soares Bragaout: Jerome Williams
90+1'
🔁Josh Mcpakeout: Severin Sabri Guendouz
90+3'
Yan Dhanda

Match stats — Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian

53%Possession47%
17Shots14
5On target5
6Corners5
1.34xG1.12

Goals against chances

Motherwell0 from 1.34 xGless than the chances were worth
Heart of Midlothian2 from 1.12 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Motherwell 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. PaulsenG
  • 7T. SparrowD
  • 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
  • 5M. MoormannD
  • 45M. EmmanuelD
  • 6J. McGheeM
  • 63D. LevittM
  • 18Tawanda Jethro MaswanhiseM
  • 19I. SaidM
  • 71J. HodgeM
  • 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
Substitutes
  • 15E. Björgólfs­sonF
  • 27M. BoothM
  • 13J. KangaM
  • 4Jamie Knight-LebelD
  • 21M. ConnellyG
  • 2S. O'DonnellD
  • 77W. VogtF
  • 23E. WilsonD
Coach: Alfred Johansson
Heart of Midlothian 4-4-2
  • 1B. ReusG
  • 74R. MatoD
  • 64M. Fagan-WalcottD
  • 5J. McCartD
  • 3S. KingsleyD
  • 29S. KerjotaM
  • 22T. MagnússonM
  • 23J. AltenaM
  • 15J. McPakeM
  • 21J. WilsonF
  • 10Cláudio BragaF
Substitutes
  • 9J. WilliamsF
  • 7C. MillerF
  • 78L. MendyM
  • 11P. KaboreF
  • 19S. GuendouzF
  • 30R. FultonG
  • 31Y. DhandaF
  • 77A. Ba-SyF
  • 27A. BenjaminsenF
Coach: W. Vrancken

Form going into Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian

Motherwell

Premiership

  • L2-3away to Kilmarnock17 October 2026

Heart of Midlothian

Premiership

  • L1-7away to Celtic18 October 2026
  • W5-0St Mirren10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Motherwell133461521-613
4Heart of Midlothian126242622+420

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian

  • 9 May 2026Motherwell 1–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
  • 11 April 2026Heart of Midlothian 3–1 MotherwellPremiership
  • 29 November 2025Motherwell 0–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
  • 23 August 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–3 MotherwellPremiership
  • 10 May 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–0 MotherwellPremiership
  • 12 April 2025Motherwell 0–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership

Leading scorers: Motherwell and Heart of Midlothian

Motherwell

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lowry31

Heart of Midlothian

GoalsAssists

  • Cláudio Braga62
  • C. Miller51
  • J. McPake36

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Heart of Midlothian won 2–0 at Motherwell. The model had made a win for Heart of Midlothian its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Claudio Rafael Soares Braga 29' for Heart of Midlothian, Calvin Miller 86' for Heart of Midlothian. On expected goals it finished 1.34–1.12.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Motherwell a 40.9% chance to finish in the top six: 46.7% after a win, 39.0% after a draw, 35.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.6%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.

For Heart of Midlothian the question was the chance to finish in the top six: 97.1% after a win, 95.0% after a draw, 93.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 97.1%.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Motherwell v Heart of Midlothian has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 33% / 26% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 25% / 38%: the biggest move is Motherwell's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Motherwell win37%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Heart of Midlothian win38%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.