17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 HNL prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Referee: Antonio Melnjak
Full time2 – 0

Final score: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-0 Istra 1961.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 29% draw, 32% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb99%Draw1%Istra 19610%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Fran Karačićassist: Leon Belcar
11'
⚽Lovre kulusicassist: Fran Karačić
46'
52'
Niko Šepić
61'
🔁Niko Šepićout: Dominik Celija
61'
🔁Dukan Ahmetiout: hamza jaganjac
69'
🔁Nik Skafar Zuzicout: Silvio Gorican
69'
🔁Demirel hodzicout: Matija Kablar
🔁Leon Belcarout: dominik thaqi
73'
🔁Dušan Vukovićout: Mirko Marić
73'
🔁Ivan katicout: Matej Mitrović
73'
🔁jakov gurlicaout: Marijan Čabraja
77'
88'
🔁Isaac Aguiar Tomichout: vinko rozic
🔁Feta Fetaiout: Erbol Atabaev
90+1'

Match stats — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961

45%Possession55%
14Shots14
6On target8
5Corners10
1.49xG0.58

Goals against chances

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb2 from 1.49 xGmore than the chances were worth
Istra 19610 from 0.58 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. PosavecG
  • 13F. KaračićD
  • 2J. GurlicaD
  • 4T. TriantafyllouD
  • 20K. ČabrajićD
  • 8I. KatićM
  • 6F. FetaiM
  • 7D. VukovićM
  • 14M. LorberM
  • 9L. BelcarM
  • 11Lovre KulušićF
Substitutes
  • 3M. MitrovićD
  • 24M. MarićF
  • 26M. DardanM
  • 32L. SavatovićG
  • 25P. SmiljanicM
  • 16KaykeF
  • 10M. SubotićM
  • 15Dominik ThaqiF
  • 29J. VasiljM
Coach: N. Jelavić
Istra 1961 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. KolićG
  • 44R. HrvatinD
  • 3M. NasraouiD
  • 4R. KumarD
  • 13Niko ŠepićD
  • 5D. HodzicM
  • 25G. AlbarracínM
  • 22E. FrederiksenM
  • 20D. AhmetiM
  • 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
  • 9IsaacF
Substitutes
  • 27D. CelijaF
  • 11S. GoričanF
  • 94H. JaganjacF
  • 50Roko JenjićD
  • 34M. KablarM
  • 66M. MomohD
  • 40J. Paus-KunštG
  • 7V. RozićF
  • 24Ivano SvrakaF
Coach: Javier Cabello

Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

HNL

  • L0-1NK Varazdin11 October 2026

Istra 1961

HNL

  • W3-1away to NK Osijek10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb133281421-711
4Istra 1961135442419+519

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961

  • 1 August 2026Istra 1961 2–3 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 11 April 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–0 Istra 1961HNL
  • 30 January 2026Istra 1961 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 25 October 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–2 Istra 1961HNL
  • 9 August 2025Istra 1961 2–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 3 May 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–0 Istra 1961HNL

Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Istra 1961

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Vuković32

Istra 1961

GoalsAssists

  • E. Frederiksen115
  • H. Jaganjac52
  • D. Ahmeti34

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb beat Istra 1961 2–0. The model had made a win for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Fran Karačić 11' for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, Lovre kulusic 46' for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. On expected goals it finished 1.49–0.58.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NK Lokomotiva Zagreb a 54.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 48.8% after a win, 56.9% after a draw, 62.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.8%, 6 points lower than before the match.

For Istra 1961 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 21.7% going in: 15.9% after a win, 20.6% after a draw, 25.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.5%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v Istra 1961 has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Istra 1961's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win39%▼ −1
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Istra 1961 win32%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.