7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc Czech Liga prediction & result

FINEP Arena, Hradec Kralove
Referee: Benes Jan
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Hradec Králové 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Hradec Králové, 28% draw, 39% Sigma Olomouc — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sigma Olomouc at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hradec Králové99%Draw1%Sigma Olomouc0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

39'
Vaclav Sejk
Tomáš Čvančara
39'
⚽Tomáš Čvančara (pen)
45+3'
45'
🔁Michal Beranout: Hilmir Rafn Mikaelsson
⚽Tom Sloncikassist: Daniel Trubač
49'
•Tom Sloncik
49'
⚽Tomáš Čvančara
57'
🔁Tomáš Čvančaraout: Ondřej Mihálik
60'
64'
🔁Abdoulaye Syllaout: Tomáš Huk
64'
🔁Ahmad Ghali Abubakarout: Filip Slavicek
⚽Mick Van Burenassist: Ondřej Mihálik
69'
🔁Samuel Dancakout: Matej Valenta
70'
🔁Tom Sloncikout: Abdullahi Umar
70'
Filip Cihak
76'
82'
🔁Dominik Janosekout: Fabijan Krivak
82'
🔁Marko Soldoout: David Tkáč
🔁Filip Cihakout: Juraj Chvátal
82'
🔁Mick Van Burenout: Rodrigo Abajas
83'
⚽Ondřej Mihálikassist: Jakub Kucera
87'

Match stats — Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc

64%Possession36%
23Shots6
11On target1
9Corners2
3.89xG0.34

Goals against chances

Hradec Králové5 from 3.89 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sigma Olomouc0 from 0.34 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hradec Králové 3-4-2-1
  • 12A. ZadražilG
  • 7J. UhrinčaťD
  • 5F. ČihákD
  • 25F. ČechD
  • 27D. TrubačM
  • 11S. DancákM
  • 28J. KučeraM
  • 26D. HorákM
  • 10M. van BurenM
  • 19T. SlončíkM
  • 70T. ČvančaraF
Substitutes
  • 4T. PetrášekD
  • 2D. LudvíčekD
  • 24A. UmarF
  • 17O. MihálikF
  • 3F. MielkeD
  • 1P. VízekG
  • 9M. ValentaM
  • 33Rodrigo AbajasD
  • 30J. ChvátalM
Coach: D. Horejs
Sigma Olomouc 3-4-3
  • 91Jan KoutnýG
  • 2A. SyllaD
  • 33M. MalýD
  • 3L. LurvinkD
  • 70A. GhaliM
  • 88P. BaráthM
  • 7M. BeranM
  • 4Léo BorgesM
  • 39D. JanošekF
  • 10V. SejkF
  • 14M. SoldoF
Substitutes
  • 29A. EkerothD
  • 98M. HruškaG
  • 5T. HukD
  • 23F. KrivakM
  • 11H. MikaelssonF
  • 6J. ŠípM
  • 16F. SlavíčekD
  • 24D. TkáčM
  • 28I. BrzyskiM
Coach: P. Hapal

Form going into Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc

Hradec Králové

Czech Liga

  • L1-3away to Mlada Boleslav1 November 2026
  • L1-2FK Jablonec25 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Slavia Praha17 October 2026
  • L2-4Artis10 October 2026

Sigma Olomouc

Czech Liga

  • W3-0Zbrojovka Brno31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Zlin24 October 2026
  • W1-0Slovan Liberec17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Teplice11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Hradec Králové did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Hradec Králové scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Hradec Králové conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sigma Olomouc went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Sigma Olomouc scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Sigma Olomouc had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Hradec Králové145361718-118
5Sigma Olomouc147342220+224

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc

  • 31 January 2026Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
  • 24 August 2025Hradec Králové 1–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
  • 16 March 2025Sigma Olomouc 1–2 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
  • 19 October 2024Hradec Králové 1–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
  • 12 May 2024Sigma Olomouc 1–3 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
  • 5 May 2024Hradec Králové 3–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc

Hradec Králové

GoalsAssists

  • T. Čvančara41
  • T. Slončík40

Sigma Olomouc

GoalsAssists

  • V. Sejk63
  • A. Ghali42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hradec Králové beat Sigma Olomouc 5–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sigma Olomouc at 39% and given a win for Hradec Králové 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Tomáš Čvančara (penalty) 45+3' for Hradec Králové, Tom Sloncik 49' for Hradec Králové, Tomáš Čvančara 57' for Hradec Králové, Mick Van Buren 69' for Hradec Králové, Ondřej Mihálik 87' for Hradec Králové. Sent off: Vaclav Sejk (Sigma Olomouc) 39'. On expected goals it finished 3.89–0.34.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hradec Králové a 48.2% chance to finish in the top ten: 56.8% after a win, 47.7% after a draw, 40.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.8%, 8.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hradec Králové v Sigma Olomouc has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 33% / 28% / 39%: the biggest move is Sigma Olomouc's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Hradec Králové win33%▼ −4
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Sigma Olomouc win39%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.