Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Zbrojovka Brno 1-3 Baník Ostrava.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Zbrojovka Brno, 28% draw, 26% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Zbrojovka Brno at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. HrdinaG
- 6Lukáš PenxaD
- 26F. VedralD
- 38J. PokornýD
- 44A. DantéD
- 14T. VachoušekM
- 68J. JanetzkýM
- 23P. ŠevčíkM
- 18D. GranečnýM
- 77L. EzehF
- 15D. VašulínF
- 25T. BřečkaD
- 8P. ČavošM
- 19B. KanakimanaF
- 39J. KlímaD
- 7Š. LangerM
- 11M. RymarenkoF
- 20L. SaalM
- 79S. AfolabiM
- 24D. SváčekG
- 1V. BudinskýG
- 17M. FrydrychD
- 83R. NoghaD
- 42J. MíčekD
- 34A. BeweneM
- 5J. BoulaM
- 18D. PlankaM
- 3Rhodri SmithM
- 21M. KohútF
- 22V. SkrkonF
- 28F. KubalaF
- 8A. TraoréM
- 19F. ŠanclM
- 55Artúr MusákM
- 81M. KmeťD
- 15V. JurečkaF
- 24M. HrubýG
- 95D. HolzerM
- 7D. GilbertM
- 37M. ChalušD
Form going into Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava
Zbrojovka Brno
Czech Liga
- L0-3away to Sigma Olomouc31 October 2026
- D2-2Bohemians 190524 October 2026
- W2-1away to Slovácko18 October 2026
- L0-1FK Jablonec10 October 2026
Baník Ostrava
Czech Liga
- L0-4Plzen1 November 2026
- D0-0Sparta Praha18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bohemians 190510 October 2026
- D2-2away to Slovácko19 September 2026
What these results say
- Zbrojovka Brno conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Zbrojovka Brno failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Zbrojovka Brno had three goals or more.
- Baník Ostrava did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Baník Ostrava failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Baník Ostrava conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Zbrojovka Brno | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 20 |
| 13 | Baník Ostrava | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava
- 6 May 2023Baník Ostrava 4–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 18 February 2023Zbrojovka Brno 2–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 31 August 2022Baník Ostrava 1–2 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 1 May 2021Baník Ostrava 1–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 23 December 2020Zbrojovka Brno 0–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Zbrojovka Brno and Baník Ostrava
Zbrojovka Brno
GoalsAssists
- D. Vašulín50
Baník Ostrava
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Baník Ostrava won 3–1 at Zbrojovka Brno. The model had leaned towards a win for Zbrojovka Brno at 46% and given a win for Baník Ostrava 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Filip Kubala 23' for Baník Ostrava, Filip Kubala 26' for Baník Ostrava, Štěpán Langer 48' for Zbrojovka Brno, Filip Kubala 75' for Baník Ostrava. On expected goals it finished 1.58–1.74.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zbrojovka Brno a 66.4% chance to finish in the top ten: 73.7% after a win, 63.2% after a draw, 58.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.4%, 8 points lower than before the match.
For Baník Ostrava the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 42.5% going in: 31.0% after a win, 43.6% after a draw, 47.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.0%, 11.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Zbrojovka Brno v Baník Ostrava has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 28% / 26%: the biggest move is Baník Ostrava's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Zbrojovka Brno win46%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Baník Ostrava win26%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.