San Diego vs Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Diego 3-3 Houston Dynamo.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% San Diego, 28% draw, 32% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
San Diego at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Diego vs Houston Dynamo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 3D. ÞórhallssonD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 26M. DuahD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 70A. AlvaradoM
- 6J. TverskovM
- 8O. ValakariM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 94C. BakambuF
- 99E. AchouriF
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 36David MimbangM
- 25I. PilcherD
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 31J. BondG
- 11L. EnnaliD
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 21F. NegriD
- 6ArturM
- 16H. HerreraM
- 19M. BoguszM
- 30A. BouzatM
- 20GuilhermeM
- 9L. FosterF
- 22M. AranaM
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 14D. HolmesM
- 23D. McGuireF
- 34A. ReschD
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 24A. IbrahimF
- 4M. SaracchiD
Form going into San Diego vs Houston Dynamo
San Diego
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to New York Red Bulls10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Austin27 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami20 September 2026
- L0-5Philadelphia Union14 September 2026
- L2-3San Jose Earthquakes10 September 2026
Houston Dynamo
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Minnesota United FC11 October 2026
- L0-2Sporting Kansas City27 September 2026
- D2-2FC Cincinnati20 September 2026
- L0-1away to San Jose Earthquakes13 September 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake10 September 2026
What these results say
- San Diego did not win any of these 5 matches.
- San Diego conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for San Diego had three goals or more.
- Houston Dynamo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | San Diego | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 57 | 63 | -6 | 38 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Diego vs Houston Dynamo
- 23 April 2026Houston Dynamo 1–0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2025Houston Dynamo 2–4 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2025San Diego 3–4 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Diego and Houston Dynamo
San Diego
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 57 league goals as a side.
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme168
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
San Diego and Houston Dynamo drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for San Diego at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Anders Dreyer (penalty) 20' for San Diego, Cédric Bakambu 22' for San Diego, Guilherme Augusto 24' for Houston Dynamo, Mateusz Bogusz 33' for Houston Dynamo, Guilherme Augusto 37' for Houston Dynamo, Gabriel Pirani 86' for San Diego. On expected goals it finished 2.57–0.93.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave San Diego a 26.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 13.6% after a win, 29.3% after a draw, 41.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 29.3%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.
For Houston Dynamo the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 35.9% going in: 52.5% after a win, 32.0% after a draw, 25.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 32.0%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on San Diego v Houston Dynamo has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- San Diego win40%▲ +1
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Houston Dynamo win32%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.