Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: Orgryte IS 3-4 AIK Stockholm.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Orgryte IS, 27% draw, 16% AIK Stockholm — fair odds of 1.75, 3.70 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orgryte IS at 57% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm
Line-ups
- 44Hampus GustafssonG
- 5Christoffer StyffeD
- 6Mikael DyrestamD
- 2Michael ParkerD
- 14Daniel PaulsonM
- 8Benjamin LaturnusM
- 23Owen Parker-PriceM
- 19Anton AndreassonM
- 17William HofvanderF
- 11Noah ChristofferssonF
- 22Tobias SanaF
- 16Hampus DahlqvistD
- 15Jerome Tibbling UgwoF
- 7Charlie VindehallM
- 29Marlon EbietomereD
- 34Alex RahmG
- 26Viggo SynnergrenM
- 21William KenndalM
- 20Månz KarlssonF
- 9Liam Filip AnderssonF
- 15Kristoffer NordfeldtG
- 17Mads Døhr ThychosenD
- 34Wilmer OlofssonD
- 3Herve MatthysD
- 5Lukas BergquistD
- 7Amel MujanićM
- 19Dino BeširovićM
- 18Abdihakin AliM
- 9Linus CarlstrandF
- 29Kevin FillingF
- 11Victor AnderssonF
- 22Adrian HelmF
- 46Yannick GeigerM
- 16Sixten GustafssonF
- 28Linus JäretegM
- 43Nikolaj StaykovF
- 30Kalle JoelssonG
- 42Oskar PukelisD
- 47Ladji CamaraD
- 41Mohammed ShillaM
Form going into Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm
Orgryte IS
- W3-0away to AIK Stockholm2 August 2026
- L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK24 July 2026
- D0-0Djurgardens IF20 July 2026
AIK Stockholm
- L0-3Orgryte IS2 August 2026
- D0-0away to BK Hacken27 July 2026
- W2-0Gais18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 24 | 47 | -23 | 15 |
| 7 | AIK Stockholm | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm
- 8 August 2026Orgryte IS 3–4 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 2 August 2026AIK Stockholm 0–3 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
- 19 February 2022AIK Stockholm 2–0 Orgryte ISSvenska Cupen
- 1 March 2020Orgryte IS 0–1 AIK StockholmSvenska Cupen
Leading scorers: Orgryte IS and AIK Stockholm
Orgryte IS
- N. Christoffersson8 goals1 assists
AIK Stockholm
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.