Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente 2-1 Deportivo Riestra.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Independiente, 34% draw, 21% Deportivo Riestra — fair odds of 2.22, 2.94 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Independiente at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77S. MeleG
- 4S. AriasD
- 36S. ValdezD
- 35J. ArrayagoD
- 5N. BanegasD
- 16M. PerezM
- 23I. MarconeM
- 11I. MachucaM
- 8M. MezaM
- 24J. PalaisM
- 6E. ÁvilaF
- 19M. AbaldoF
- 20Facundo CruzM
- 13J. FedorcoD
- 29L. GodoyD
- 14Lautaro MillánM
- 34F. TemponeF
- 22F. ZabalaD
- 9I. MoralesF
- 10L. CabralM
- 1I. ArceG
- 40G. ObredorD
- 24F. MiñoD
- 19J. RandazzoD
- 22C. PazD
- 5P. RamírezD
- 8M. CélizM
- 16N. WatsonM
- 27J. GoitíaM
- 7Antony Daniel Alonso EspinozaF
- 29M. GranerosF
- 17Á. AlmadaM
- 23M. ArzamendiaG
- 9N. BenegasF
- 36M. BracamonteD
- 11A. DíazF
- 6I. GariglioD
- 21T. GonzálezF
- 20T. LauroM
- 18B. PérezM
Form going into Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra
Independiente
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D1-1away to Defensa Y Justicia2 November 2026
- L0-1Boca Juniors25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Racing Club18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 October 2026
Deportivo Riestra
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L0-3Talleres Cordoba31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba27 October 2026
- D1-1Union Santa Fe20 October 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo11 October 2026
What these results say
- Independiente did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Independiente had two goals or fewer.
- Independiente conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Riestra did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Riestra conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Riestra failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 14 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra
- 24 April 2026Deportivo Riestra 2–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 November 2025Deportivo Riestra 0–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 April 2025Independiente 0–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 October 2024Independiente 3–1 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 March 2024Deportivo Riestra 1–0 IndependienteCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Independiente and Deportivo Riestra
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Deportivo Riestra
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Independiente beat Deportivo Riestra 2–1. The model had made a win for Independiente its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mateo Pérez Curci 11' for Independiente, Alexander Díaz 86' for Deportivo Riestra, Felipe Tempone 87' for Independiente. On expected goals it finished 1.14–1.39.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Independiente a 66.2% chance to finish in the top eight: 100.0% after a win, 40.2% after a draw, 20.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 100.0%, 33.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Independiente v Deportivo Riestra has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 43% / 34% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 34% / 21%: the biggest move is Independiente's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Independiente win45%▲ +2
- Draw34%=
- Deportivo Riestra win21%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.