San Lorenzo vs Platense Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: San Lorenzo 0-2 Platense.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% San Lorenzo, 34% draw, 27% Platense — fair odds of 2.56, 2.94 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
San Lorenzo at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Lorenzo vs Platense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25J. DevecchiG
- 16G. CorujoD
- 2D. ArboledaD
- 42F. LorenzónD
- 24N. TripichioM
- 27M. RíoM
- 10Facundo GulliM
- 3T. RodríguezM
- 14A. LadstatterM
- 38F. FaríasM
- 9A. CuelloF
- 54Nicolas BlancoD
- 19E. AmorD
- 35A. CordobaD
- 32E. HerreraD
- 36Daniel HerreraD
- 8M. InsaurraldeM
- 37Thiago PeruginiF
- 61Gustavo Nahuel RomeroM
- 47Ignacio ZaballaM
- 30J. CozzaniG
- 4A. LagosD
- 34M. MendiaD
- 31V. CuestaD
- 3T. SilvaD
- 26P. FerreiraM
- 15M. AmarfilM
- 43N. RetamarM
- 10F. ZapiolaM
- 33J. GautoM
- 99G. LencinaF
- 27S. DalmassoM
- 5I. GómezM
- 38Celías Adán IngenthronD
- 21A. LottiF
- 11N. LópezF
- 7G. MaineroF
- 6E. RaggioD
- 25J. SaboridoD
- 79B. SepúlvedaF
Form going into San Lorenzo vs Platense
San Lorenzo
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D2-2away to Velez Sarsfield31 October 2026
- D0-0Newell's Old Boys24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Estudiantes La Plata18 October 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Riestra11 October 2026
Platense
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-0Central Cordoba de Santiago2 November 2026
- W2-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza23 October 2026
- L0-1Lanus17 October 2026
- D1-1Argentinos Juniors11 October 2026
What these results say
- San Lorenzo went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- San Lorenzo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Platense scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Platense conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Platense had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 19 |
| 10 | Platense | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Platense
- 25 April 2026Platense 0–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 August 2025Platense 2–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 May 2025San Lorenzo 0–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 February 2025San Lorenzo 2–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 September 2024Platense 1–2 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 March 2024Platense 0–0 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: San Lorenzo and Platense
San Lorenzo
GoalsAssists
- R. Auzmendi72
Platense
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Platense won 2–0 at San Lorenzo. The model had leaned towards a win for San Lorenzo at 39% and given a win for Platense 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Víctor Cuesta 22' for Platense, Kevin Retamar 52' for Platense. Sent off: Guzman corujo (San Lorenzo) 73'. On expected goals it finished 0.77–1.39.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave San Lorenzo a 27.7% chance to finish in the top eight: 66.3% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 27.7 points lower than before the match.
For Platense the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 3.3% going in: 12.5% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.5%, 9.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.