28 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer prediction & result

Gillette Stadium, Boston
Referee: Christopher Penso
Full time3 – 2

Final score: New England Revolution 3-2 New York Red Bulls.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% New England Revolution, 26% draw, 23% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

New England Revolution at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

New England Revolution97%Draw3%New York Red Bulls0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Dor Turgemanassist: Carles Gil
9'
12'
Ronald Donkor
Ilay Feingold
40'
45'
🔁Tim Parkerout: Matthew Dos Santos
⚽Dor Turgemanassist: Luca Daniel·Langoni
46'
48'
Dylan Nealis
51'
⚽Cade Cowellassist: Ronald Donkor
🔁Ilay Feingoldout: Mamadou Fofana
62'
🔁Jackson Yueillout: Matt Polster
62'
🔁William Sandsout: Peyton Miller
63'
63'
🔁Mohammed Sofoout: Emil Forsberg
64'
⚽Julian Hallassist: Emil Forsberg
76'
🔁Cade Cowellout: Cameron Harper
76'
Julian Hall
🔁Luca Daniel·Langoniout: Griffin Yow
78'
⚽Dániel Gazdag
83'
84'
🔁Jorge Ruvalcabaout: Rafael Mosquera
84'
🔁Ronald Donkorout: Sekou Kone
🔁Dor Turgemanout: Judah Siqueira
90'
Judah Siqueira
90+3'

Match stats — New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls

51%Possession49%
9Shots20
4On target11
2Corners6
1.97xG2.68

Goals against chances

New England Revolution3 from 1.97 xGmore than the chances were worth
New York Red Bulls2 from 2.68 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

New England Revolution 4-4-1-1
  • 30M. TurnerG
  • 12I. FeingoldD
  • 22E. KohlerD
  • 66J. WynderD
  • 23W. SandsD
  • 41L. LangoniM
  • 21B. RainesM
  • 14J. YueillM
  • 16D. GazdagM
  • 10Carles GilM
  • 99D. TurgemanF
Substitutes
  • 77D. FagundezM
  • 4T. BeasonD
  • 15C. BakerD
  • 2M. FofanaD
  • 25P. MillerD
  • 33D. ParisianG
  • 8M. PolsterM
  • 65J. SiqueiraM
  • 7G. YowF
Coach: M. Mićović
New York Red Bulls 4-3-3
  • 34E. HorvathG
  • 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
  • 12D. NealisD
  • 26T. ParkerD
  • 59D. PadelfordD
  • 48R. DonkorM
  • 15A. MehmetiM
  • 37M. SofoM
  • 7C. CowellF
  • 16J. HallF
  • 11J. RuvalcabaF
Substitutes
  • 60S. KoneM
  • 77J. McCarthyG
  • 45C. FaelloD
  • 56M. Dos SantosD
  • 8D. RuízM
  • 17C. HarperF
  • 10E. ForsbergM
  • 79R. MosqueraF
  • 13E. Choupo-MotingF
Coach: Michael Bradley

Form going into New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls

New England Revolution

Major League Soccer

  • W2-1away to Philadelphia Union24 October 2026
  • W1-0Chicago Fire17 October 2026

New York Red Bulls

Major League Soccer

  • W2-0Inter Miami24 October 2026
  • L0-2Toronto FC17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3New England Revolution34184125547+858
10New York Red Bulls34126164862-1442

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls

  • 28 February 2026New York Red Bulls 1–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 16 July 2025New York Red Bulls 5–3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 29 March 2025New England Revolution 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 8 June 2024New England Revolution 1–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 11 May 2024New York Red Bulls 4–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 24 January 2024New England Revolution 0–3 New York Red BullsFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

New England Revolution beat New York Red Bulls 3–2. The model had made a win for New England Revolution its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Dor Turgeman 9' for New England Revolution, Dor Turgeman 46' for New England Revolution, Cade Cowell 51' for New York Red Bulls, Julian Hall 64' for New York Red Bulls, Dániel Gazdag 83' for New England Revolution. On expected goals it finished 1.97–2.68.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave New York Red Bulls a 36.5% chance to finish in the top nine: 70.1% after a win, 39.5% after a draw, 20.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.6%, 15.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on New England Revolution v New York Red Bulls has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 51% / 26% / 23%: the biggest move is New England Revolution's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. New England Revolution win51%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%=
  3. New York Red Bulls win23%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.