18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Kalamata vs OFI Super League 1 prediction & result

Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium, Kalamata
Referee: Eleftherios Katopis
Full time4 – 3

Final score: Kalamata 4-3 OFI.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Kalamata, 26% draw, 28% OFI — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kalamata at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kalamata5%Draw91%OFI4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽David Kurminowskiassist: Petros Kaloutsikidis
14'
Djibril Diarra
15'
⚽David Kurminowskiassist: Petros Kaloutsikidis
18'
🔁Djibril Diarraout: Argyrios Liatsikouras
37'
•Stefanos Stroungis
45+1'
45'
🔁Nikolaos Christogeorgosout: Klidman Lilo
45'
🔁Dimitris Nikolaouout: Achilleas Poungouras
45'
🔁Georgios Kanellopoulosout: Athanasios Androutsos
58'
⚽Thiago Nussassist: Borja González
⚽David Kurminowskiassist: Gonzalo Agustín Piñeiro
59'
David Kurminowski
61'
🔁Ahmad Mendes Moreiraout: Arnór Sigurðsson
63'
🔁David Kurminowskiout: Jovanny Bolivar
63'
64'
🔁Konstantinos Kostoulasout: Lorenzo Dickmann
Gonzalo Agustín Piñeiro
70'
75'
⚽Kenan Kodroassist: Thiago Nuss
🔁Erik Hamzaout: J. Cataldi
76'
🔁Kenneth Vargasout: Julián Bonetto
76'
78'
🔁Anastasios Chatzigiovanisout: Giannis Theodosoulakis
84'
⚽Thiago Nussassist: Lorenzo Dickmann
85'
Giannis Theodosoulakis
87'
Zisis Karachalios
Julio Alonso
90+2'
⚽Arnór Sigurðssonassist: Julián Bonetto
90+4'

Match stats — Kalamata vs OFI

38%Possession62%
13Shots8
9On target3
1Corners6
1.79xG1.98

Goals against chances

Kalamata4 from 1.79 xGmore than the chances were worth
OFI3 from 1.98 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kalamata 4-2-3-1
  • 40N. VasiljevićG
  • 22P. KaloutsikidisD
  • 4S. StroungisD
  • 97RodriguesD
  • 17Julio AlonsoD
  • 23G. PiñeiroM
  • 6D. DiarraM
  • 77K. VargasM
  • 24E. HamzaM
  • 20A. Mendes MoreiraM
  • 91D. KurminowskiF
Substitutes
  • 11Josete MirandaF
  • 8A. LiatsikourasM
  • 44A. GuessandD
  • 26P. GinisG
  • 10A. SigurðssonM
  • 19M. J. BakayokoD
  • 9J. BolívarF
  • 32J. BonettoF
  • 7J. CataldiM
Coach: Panagiotis Christofileas
OFI 3-4-2-1
  • 31N. ChristogeorgosG
  • 5K. KostoulasD
  • 43D. NikolaouD
  • 2K. KrizmanićD
  • 17Borja GonzálezM
  • 6Z. KarachaliosM
  • 8G. KanellópoulosM
  • 3N. AthanasiouM
  • 18T. NussM
  • 7T. ChatzigiovanisM
  • 19K. KodroF
Substitutes
  • 14T. AndroutsosM
  • 21G. ApostolakisM
  • 41A. BouchalakisM
  • 24L. DickmannD
  • 90Pavlos KenourgiakisD
  • 13P. KatsikasG
  • 52Konstantinos LagoudakisD
  • 1K. LiloG
  • 15A. PoungourasD
Coach: C. Kontis

Form going into Kalamata vs OFI

Kalamata

Super League 1

  • W3-1away to PAOK12 October 2026

OFI

Super League 1

  • L0-3away to AEK Athens FC10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Kalamata103341519-412
6OFI105231412+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Kalamata and OFI

Kalamata

GoalsAssists

  • D. Kurminowski50
  • J. Bolívar30

OFI

GoalsAssists

  • K. Kodro40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Kalamata beat OFI 4–3. The model had made a win for Kalamata its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: David Kurminowski 14' for Kalamata, David Kurminowski 18' for Kalamata, Thiago Nuss 58' for OFI, David Kurminowski 59' for Kalamata, Kenan Kodro 75' for OFI, Thiago Nuss 84' for OFI, Arnór Sigurðsson 90+4' for Kalamata. On expected goals it finished 1.79–1.98.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kalamata a 7.6% chance to finish in the top four: 9.4% after a win, 5.9% after a draw, 4.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.4%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

For OFI the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 10.6% going in: 6.0% after a win, 9.9% after a draw, 12.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.6%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kalamata v OFI has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is Kalamata's chance of winning, up 11 points.

  1. Kalamata win46%▲ +11
  2. Draw26%▼ −3
  3. OFI win28%▼ −8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.