Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Marseille 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Marseille, 30% draw, 28% Olympiakos Piraeus — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Marseille at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12J. de LangeG
- 22T. WeahD
- 18B. MeitéD
- 21N. AguerdD
- 33EmersonD
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 6T. NnadiM
- 48K. AbdallahM
- 7A. GomesM
- 14Igor PaixãoM
- 11N. MaupayF
- 4C. Egan-RileyD
- 74K. BezahafD
- 25U. GarciaD
- 9A. GouiriF
- 77A. HaritM
- 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
- 19G. KondogbiaM
- 43T. MmadiF
- 29F. MoumbagnaF
- 1S. OrtegaG
- 2M. SaliakasD
- 45P. RetsosD
- 5L. PirolaD
- 70S. OnyemaechiD
- 15G. PuertaM
- 32S. HezzeM
- 10Gelson MartinsM
- 22ChiquinhoM
- 20Jota SilvaM
- 11R. YaremchukF
- 4Z. SmajlovićD
- 71N. TiknizyanD
- 27M. PedersenD
- 34A. GonzálezF
- 19R. FreulerM
- 7K. FortounisM
- 6David CarmoD
- 8Gustavo SáM
- 92I. GeorgakopoulosG
Form going into Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Marseille
UEFA Europa League
- L1-4away to Beşiktaş17 September 2026
Olympiakos Piraeus
UEFA Europa League
- W2-1Jagiellonia16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus
- 1 December 2020Marseille 2–1 Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Champions League
- 21 October 2020Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 MarseilleUEFA Champions League
- 23 November 2011Marseille 0–1 Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Champions League
- 13 September 2011Olympiakos Piraeus 0–1 MarseilleUEFA Champions League
The result against the call
Olympiakos Piraeus won 1–0 at Marseille. The model had leaned towards a win for Marseille at 42% and given a win for Olympiakos Piraeus 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Santiago Hezze 42' for Olympiakos Piraeus. On expected goals it finished 0.90–0.63.
How the call on Marseille v Olympiakos Piraeus has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 30% / 28%: the biggest move is Marseille's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Marseille win42%▲ +2
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Olympiakos Piraeus win28%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.