19 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht Eerste Divisie prediction & result

De Herdgang, Eindhoven
Referee: Stan Smit
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Jong PSV U21 0-1 Dordrecht.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Jong PSV U21, 25% draw, 21% Dordrecht — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Jong PSV U21 at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Jong PSV U210%Draw6%Dordrecht94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Boet Mulders
11'
12'
⚽J. de Bie (pen)
40'
nicolas rossi
🔁Philip Holseter-Karlsenout: Michael Bresser
45'
🔁Sami Ouaissaout: Samuel Dumbili
45'
61'
🔁nicolas rossiout: Siginho Gerardo
🔁Fabio Kluitout: Jairo Beerens
63'
74'
Senne Vugts
🔁Kyano Pensoout: Lyfe Oldenstam
82'
🔁Boet Muldersout: Mathieu Buyens
82'
86'
🔁Robin van Astenout: Lucas Gardenier
87'
🔁J. de Bieout: Adil Lechkar
90+4'
🔁Martin Vetkalout: Yannis M'Bemba
90+4'
🔁Senne Vugtsout: Seung-Gyun Bae

Match stats — Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht

59%Possession41%
4Shots21
0On target3
3Corners9
0.23xG2.1

Goals against chances

Jong PSV U210 from 0.23 xGabout what the chances were worth
Dordrecht1 from 2.10 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jong PSV U21 4-2-3-1
  • 1Khadim NgomG
  • 2K. PensoD
  • 3F. MeriénD
  • 4M. MonamayD
  • 5R. ManuhutuD
  • 6B. MuldersM
  • 8S. SidibeM
  • 10P. Holseter-KarlsenM
  • 7S. OuaissaM
  • 11F. KluitM
  • 9A. JonesF
Substitutes
  • 19S. DumbiliF
  • 15L. OldenstamD
  • 18Mathieu BuyensM
  • 14M. BresserD
  • 17J. BeerensF
  • 16Kane AertsG
Coach: Rens Sleegers
Dordrecht 4-2-3-1
  • 28T. CoremansG
  • 22J. van AkenD
  • 4J. PinasD
  • 3S. HenderikxD
  • 5C. MpanzuD
  • 8Senne VugtsM
  • 6L. RiccioM
  • 18Robin van AstenM
  • 21M. VetkalM
  • 11N. RossiM
  • 9J. de BieF
Substitutes
  • 51Lucas GardenierD
  • 44B. HardleyD
  • 29Siginho GerardoF
  • 13Dean HogervorstG
  • 2A. LechkarD
  • 15Y. M'BembaD
  • 1Finn OldenstamG
  • 16L. RománF
  • 23L. WoudenbergD
Coach: Paul Nuijten

Form going into Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht

Jong PSV U21

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1away to Roda9 October 2026

Dordrecht

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3Emmen9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Den Bosch3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Jong PSV U21144551822-417
19Dordrecht153391936-1712

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht

  • 27 February 2026Jong PSV U21 1–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 23 August 2025Dordrecht 1–2 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
  • 24 February 2025Jong PSV U21 1–2 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 4 October 2024Dordrecht 2–0 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
  • 26 February 2024Jong PSV U21 0–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 10 November 2023Dordrecht 1–4 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie

The result against the call

Dordrecht won 1–0 at Jong PSV U21. The model had leaned towards a win for Jong PSV U21 at 54% and given a win for Dordrecht 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: J. de Bie (penalty) 12' for Dordrecht. On expected goals it finished 0.23–2.10.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jong PSV U21 a 22.0% chance to finish in the top eight: 24.3% after a win, 20.1% after a draw, 15.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.0%, 7 points lower than before the match.

For Dordrecht the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 65.3% going in: 56.6% after a win, 63.1% after a draw, 69.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.6%, 8.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Jong PSV U21 v Dordrecht has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Jong PSV U21's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Jong PSV U21 win54%▲ +8
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Dordrecht win21%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.