19 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Rodez vs Montpellier Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez
Referee: Geoffrey Kubler
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Rodez 0-3 Montpellier.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Rodez, 30% draw, 38% Montpellier — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Montpellier at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rodez0%Draw1%Montpellier99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Mathis Saka
35'
50'
Yaël Mouanga Boudzoumou
55'
⚽Nicolas Pays
56'
🔁Noah Vidalout: Daryll Benlahlou
59'
⚽Laciné Megnan Pave
🔁Octave Jolyout: Damjan Pavlović
62'
🔁Steven Luyambula Biwaout: Jean Lambert Evan's
62'
🔁Mathis Sakaout: Antonin Cartillier
67'
🔁Mathis Touhoout: Kenny Nagera
68'
70'
🔁Theo Sainte Luceout: Yanis Zouaoui
76'
⚽Daryll Benlahlou
🔁Nachon Nsingiout: Kelian Nsona
80'
85'
🔁Florian Tardieuout: Hichem Abderrebi
85'
🔁Laciné Megnan Paveout: Théo Chennahi

Match stats — Rodez vs Montpellier

40%Possession60%
16Shots16
2On target8
8Corners4
1.7xG1.65

Goals against chances

Rodez0 from 1.70 xGless than the chances were worth
Montpellier3 from 1.65 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rodez 5-3-2
  • 1Q. BraatG
  • 28S. Luyambula BiwaD
  • 24L. QuenabioD
  • 4M. MagninD
  • 3R. LipinskiD
  • 20R. PontiD
  • 10M. SakaM
  • 6J. MendesM
  • 22O. JolyM
  • 9N. NsingiF
  • 11M. TouhoF
Substitutes
  • 21K. NsonaF
  • 8D. PavlovićM
  • 29Antonin CartillierM
  • 30E. CrombezG
  • 13C. RoubiouD
  • 15E. Jean-LambertD
  • 7K. NageraF
  • 5M. SyllaD
Coach: D. Santini
Montpellier 4-2-3-1
  • 31S. NgapandouetnbuG
  • 3Naoufel El HannachD
  • 15J. LaporteD
  • 6Y. MouangaD
  • 17T. Sainte-LuceD
  • 5F. TardieuM
  • 27D. MeddahM
  • 18N. PaysM
  • 40N. Vidal-CartouxM
  • 9Lacine Megnan-PaveM
  • 11M. CamaraF
Substitutes
  • 28Y. ZouaouiD
  • 77EversonM
  • 1M. MichelG
  • 44T. ChennahiM
  • 23Daryll BenlahlouF
  • 90Gregory AyemM
  • 32Hichem AbderrebiM
Coach: Z. Camara

Form going into Rodez vs Montpellier

Rodez

Ligue 2

  • L0-2away to Saint Etienne10 October 2026

Montpellier

Ligue 2

  • W2-0Grenoble9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Rodez124171723-613
3Montpellier12732189+924

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rodez vs Montpellier

  • 1 August 2026Montpellier 4–2 RodezFriendlies Clubs
  • 20 February 2026Rodez 1–0 MontpellierLigue 2
  • 31 October 2025Montpellier 2–0 RodezLigue 2
  • 18 July 2025Montpellier 0–2 RodezFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 December 2022Montpellier 5–0 RodezFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 July 2022Montpellier 0–1 RodezFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Rodez and Montpellier

Rodez

GoalsAssists

  • I. Baldé50

Montpellier

GoalsAssists

  • N. Pays52
  • Lacine Megnan-Pave42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Montpellier won 3–0 at Rodez. The model had made a win for Montpellier its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Nicolas Pays 55' for Montpellier, Laciné Megnan Pave 59' for Montpellier, Daryll Benlahlou 76' for Montpellier. On expected goals it finished 1.70–1.65.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rodez a 21.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 16.5% after a win, 22.0% after a draw, 24.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.8%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

For Montpellier the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 27.5% going in: 31.4% after a win, 26.2% after a draw, 22.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.4%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rodez v Montpellier has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 35% / 30% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 32% / 30% / 38%: the biggest move is Rodez's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Rodez win32%▼ −3
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Montpellier win38%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.