19 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Jong Utrecht vs Roda Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Utrecht
Referee: Jorg Ordelmans
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Jong Utrecht 1-2 Roda.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Jong Utrecht, 32% draw, 32% Roda — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Jong Utrecht at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Jong Utrecht0%Draw3%Roda97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Massien Ghaddariassist: Wessel Kooy
44'
Massien Ghaddari
50'
57'
⚽Dyon Dorenboschassist: Cain Seedorf
🔁Ferdinand Pohlout: Driss Laaouina
65'
🔁Richie Omorowaout: Noa Malik Dundas
65'
🔁Per Kloosterboerout: Bjorn Menzo
65'
71'
🔁Koen Jansenout: Bram Marsman
71'
🔁Guilherme Martinho Peixotoout: X. van den Berg
🔁Jaygo van Ommerenout: tijn boggende den
71'
77'
🔁Cain Seedorfout: Fynn Schenten
78'
🔁Mitchel Paulissenout: Jeremiah Mensah
🔁Jamie Schuldesout: Noël Beulens
82'
85'
Bram Marsman
88'
⚽Anthony van den Hurkassist: X. van den Berg
90'
🔁Joshua Nisbetout: Luuk Verheij

Match stats — Jong Utrecht vs Roda

42%Possession58%
12Shots20
2On target5
3Corners11
1.02xG2.44

Goals against chances

Jong Utrecht1 from 1.02 xGabout what the chances were worth
Roda2 from 2.44 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jong Utrecht 4-3-3
  • 1M. EppinkG
  • 2Yousri SbaiD
  • 3J. SchuldesD
  • 14P. KloosterboerD
  • 5Viggo PlantingaD
  • 8J. van OmmerenM
  • 6W. KooyM
  • 7F. PohlM
  • 11E. C. OwenF
  • 9R. OmorowaF
  • 10Massien GhaddariF
Substitutes
  • 19N. DundasM
  • 13A. AslaniM
  • 12Noël BeulensD
  • 31Justin EversenG
  • 16Kenji GoesM
  • 15Matyas HavelkaM
  • 18D. LaaouinaM
  • 17Bjorn MenzoF
  • 21L. RietveldM
Coach: Omar Rziki
Roda 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. TreichelG
  • 3M. TolD
  • 33D. Van den BuijsD
  • 15L. BeertenD
  • 17Guilherme Martinho PeixotoM
  • 11D. DorenboschM
  • 4J. NisbetM
  • 5K. JansenM
  • 7C. SeedorfM
  • 6M. PaulissenM
  • 9A. van den HurkF
Substitutes
  • 14X. van den BergD
  • 2Luuk VerheijM
  • 21M. StojcevicG
  • 26J. SleegersF
  • 10F. SchentenF
  • 32N. MaoujoudiM
  • 25Bram MarsmanD
  • 24J. DéomM
  • 8J. MensahM
Coach: R. Penders

Form going into Jong Utrecht vs Roda

Jong Utrecht

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-2away to De Graafschap9 October 2026

Roda

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Jong PSV U219 October 2026
  • L0-2away to VVV Venlo4 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Jong Utrecht143292334-1111
5Roda158432118+328

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jong Utrecht vs Roda

  • 22 December 2025Jong Utrecht 1–3 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 1 November 2025Roda 1–1 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 24 January 2025Roda 3–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 22 November 2024Jong Utrecht 1–3 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 26 January 2024Roda 0–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 1 September 2023Jong Utrecht 1–0 RodaEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong Utrecht and Roda

Jong Utrecht

GoalsAssists

  • E. C. Owen60

Roda

GoalsAssists

  • A. van den Hurk90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Roda won 2–1 at Jong Utrecht. The model had leaned towards a win for Jong Utrecht at 36% and given a win for Roda 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Massien Ghaddari 44' for Jong Utrecht, Dyon Dorenbosch 57' for Roda, Anthony van den Hurk 88' for Roda. On expected goals it finished 1.02–2.44.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jong Utrecht a 32.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 26.0% after a win, 33.4% after a draw, 37.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.0%, 4.8 points higher than before the match.

For Roda the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 46.2% going in: 53.7% after a win, 45.8% after a draw, 39.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.7%, 7.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.