Waalwijk vs FC Volendam Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Waalwijk 1-1 FC Volendam.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Waalwijk, 29% draw, 35% FC Volendam — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Waalwijk at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Waalwijk vs FC Volendam
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. SchiksG
- 33F. Al MazyaniD
- 4L. van GelderenD
- 30J. de WijsD
- 5Juan Carlos Familia-CastilloD
- 6L. PostmaM
- 22T. van de LooM
- 7R. FageM
- 93V. MisidjanM
- 20Keyan VarelaM
- 9J. van de HaarF
- 8J. NapM
- 25N. BakboordD
- 24A. DkidakD
- 55N. HeldD
- 17R. KuijpersF
- 13Xander MulderG
- 16M. SpenkelinkG
- 27F. StokkersF
- 19H. van GemertF
- 1H. JurjusG
- 18N. BukalaD
- 25Luca BlondeauD
- 3M. AmevorD
- 2P. UgwuD
- 8D. HuismanM
- 10R. NiemeijerM
- 6A. PlatM
- 7N. DoodemanF
- 9H. VeermanF
- 21Y. el MaftahiF
- 34M. BelfqihM
- 5Dean BisschopsD
- 67F. IhlerF
- 63J. HaakmatD
- 17Miguel Opoku AgyemangF
- 12D. PayneD
- 11Kayden WolffF
- 16R. SteurG
- 22D. VlakG
Form going into Waalwijk vs FC Volendam
Waalwijk
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Heracles9 October 2026
- D1-1Emmen3 October 2026
FC Volendam
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Vitesse9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Waalwijk | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 27 | 20 | +7 | 20 |
| 7 | FC Volendam | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 27 | +7 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Waalwijk vs FC Volendam
- 18 July 2026Waalwijk 2–2 FC VolendamFriendlies Clubs
- 7 April 2024FC Volendam 3–2 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 21 October 2023Waalwijk 2–1 FC VolendamEredivisie
- 5 May 2023Waalwijk 4–1 FC VolendamEredivisie
- 14 January 2023FC Volendam 2–1 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 22 February 2019Waalwijk 3–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Waalwijk and FC Volendam
Waalwijk
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.
FC Volendam
GoalsAssists
- H. Veerman142
- R. Niemeijer52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Waalwijk and FC Volendam drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Waalwijk at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Reuven Niemeijer 4' for FC Volendam, Yoram van der Veen 81' for Waalwijk. On expected goals it finished 2.38–0.70.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Waalwijk a 18.1% chance to finish in the top four: 22.7% after a win, 16.5% after a draw, 12.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.5%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
For FC Volendam the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 42.6% going in: 50.3% after a win, 41.3% after a draw, 36.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 41.3%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Waalwijk v FC Volendam has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is FC Volendam's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Waalwijk win36%▼ −1
- Draw29%▼ −1
- FC Volendam win35%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.