19 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Ouder-Amstel
Referee: Laurens Gerrets
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Jong Ajax 2-1 De Graafschap.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Jong Ajax, 26% draw, 35% De Graafschap — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Jong Ajax at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Jong Ajax96%Draw4%De Graafschap0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Marvyn Muzungu
14'
Ryan van de Pavert
21'
⚽emre unuvar
43'
45'
⚽Donny Warmerdamassist: Mark Diemers
60'
🔁Levi Schoppemaout: Jannes Luca·Wieckhoff
60'
🔁gabriele finocchiaroout: Bjorn van Zijl
60'
🔁Kyano Kwintout: Julian kania
72'
Rowan Besselink
🔁Leo Salazarout: Anass Moumane
72'
78'
🔁Toivo Meroout: Nart Ahmeti-Grainca
🔁Jahyendrow Amourout: Sinclair de Falco
78'
🔁Mohamed Jabou Abdallaout: Levi Acheampong
78'
⚽Jano Monserrateassist: Ryan van de Pavert
79'
🔁Ryan van de Pavertout: Mylo van der Lans
85'
🔁Jano Monserrateout: Jinairo Johnson
85'
85'
🔁Thomas Kokout: Clint Leemans

Match stats — Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap

43%Possession57%
19Shots11
11On target5
5Corners5
2.85xG0.73

Goals against chances

Jong Ajax2 from 2.85 xGless than the chances were worth
De Graafschap1 from 0.73 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jong Ajax 4-3-3
  • 1C. SetfordG
  • 2R. van de PavertD
  • 3G. SpinaD
  • 4M. MuzunguD
  • 5J. AmourD
  • 10Alejandro MonserrateM
  • 6T. PetersM
  • 8Mohamed AbdallaM
  • 7Leo SalazarF
  • 9E. ÜnüvarF
  • 11P. NashF
Substitutes
  • 16A. AppiahD
  • 21L. AcheampongM
  • 19A. CamaraM
  • 12A. HaniG
  • 20Jinairo JohnsonD
  • 24A. MoumaneF
  • 22J. SimeonF
  • 23P. Da SilvaF
  • 18Sinclair de FalcoD
Coach: Carlos García
De Graafschap 4-3-3
  • 1T. WieggersG
  • 16N. MartensD
  • 3R. BesselinkD
  • 15T. KokD
  • 5L. SchoppemaD
  • 10F. de JongM
  • 23M. DiemersM
  • 8D. WarmerdamM
  • 20Gabriele FinocchiaroF
  • 40Kyano KwintF
  • 11T. MeroF
Substitutes
  • 2J. WieckhoffD
  • 28J. TriepM
  • 21K. SymonsD
  • 22P. ReversonG
  • 6C. LeemansM
  • 17N. KanindaF
  • 9J. KaniaF
  • 33R. JonkersG
  • 4J. HardemanD
Coach: T. Duivenvoorden

Form going into Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap

Jong Ajax

Eerste Divisie

  • L0-3VVV Venlo9 October 2026

De Graafschap

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-1Jong Utrecht9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Jong Ajax144462230-816
16De Graafschap144371829-1115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap

  • 6 February 2026De Graafschap 4–0 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
  • 3 October 2025Jong Ajax 2–2 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 19 April 2025De Graafschap 2–0 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
  • 9 December 2024Jong Ajax 2–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 11 March 2024De Graafschap 0–2 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
  • 21 August 2023Jong Ajax 1–2 De GraafschapEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong Ajax and De Graafschap

Jong Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • E. Ünüvar80
  • D. Pugno62

De Graafschap

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Jong Ajax beat De Graafschap 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Jong Ajax at 39%. The goals: emre unuvar 43' for Jong Ajax, Donny Warmerdam 45' for De Graafschap, Jano Monserrate 79' for Jong Ajax. On expected goals it finished 2.85–0.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jong Ajax a 48.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 42.8% after a win, 50.3% after a draw, 53.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.8%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.

For De Graafschap the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 20.7% going in: 26.1% after a win, 18.7% after a draw, 15.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.5%, 5.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Jong Ajax v De Graafschap has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 26% / 35%: the biggest move is De Graafschap's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Jong Ajax win39%=
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. De Graafschap win35%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.