Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908 Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Kalamata 1-1 Iraklis 1908.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Kalamata, 26% draw, 32% Iraklis 1908 — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Kalamata at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1I. GeliosG
- 22P. KaloutsikidisD
- 4S. StroungisD
- 97RodriguesD
- 17Julio AlonsoD
- 23G. PiñeiroM
- 21M. CarreazoM
- 10A. SigurðssonM
- 24E. HamzaM
- 20A. Mendes MoreiraM
- 91D. KurminowskiF
- 40N. VasiljevićG
- 3Álex PerezD
- 11Josete MirandaF
- 8A. LiatsikourasM
- 9J. BolívarF
- 19M. J. BakayokoD
- 32J. BonettoF
- 7J. CataldiM
- 12I. ChatzitheodoridisD
- 33G. AthanasiadisG
- 2P. VourosD
- 21PiñaD
- 4S. ChaklaD
- 30Carles SoriaM
- 90V. SourlisM
- 27M. KrainzM
- 31NanuM
- 12Xande SilvaM
- 10Y. BárcenasM
- 43Pedro MarquesF
- 14J. HromadaM
- 17Nikolaos AnastasiadisM
- 3Vitor MeerD
- 22K. KaïbouéD
- 9K. KushtaF
- 23Daniel Muñoz NavasD
- 18R. NizetD
- 69Y. RocheD
- 6CarlisM
Form going into Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908
Kalamata
Super League 1
- L0-5away to Olympiakos Piraeus25 October 2026
- W4-3OFI18 October 2026
- W3-1away to PAOK12 October 2026
Iraklis 1908
Super League 1
- L2-3Kifisia24 October 2026
- L1-2away to PAOK18 October 2026
- W2-0Levadiakos11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kalamata | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908
- 28 March 2026Kalamata 1–0 Iraklis 1908Super League 2
Leading scorers: Kalamata and Iraklis 1908
Kalamata
GoalsAssists
- D. Kurminowski50
- J. Bolívar30
Iraklis 1908
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Marques31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kalamata and Iraklis 1908 drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Kalamata at 42% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: David Kurminowski 54' for Kalamata, Nanu 57' for Iraklis 1908. On expected goals it finished 2.45–0.99.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kalamata a 14.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.4% after a win, 14.8% after a draw, 20.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 14.8%.
For Iraklis 1908 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 11.4% going in: 6.3% after a win, 10.9% after a draw, 15.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.9%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Kalamata v Iraklis 1908 has moved
First published on 19 Oct at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 26% / 32%: the biggest move is Iraklis 1908's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Kalamata win42%=
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Iraklis 1908 win32%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.