PAOK vs Iraklis 1908 Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: PAOK 2-1 Iraklis 1908.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% PAOK, 25% draw, 17% Iraklis 1908 — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Greek Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
PAOK at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PAOK vs Iraklis 1908
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41D. MonastirlisG
- 3J. KennyD
- 19Diego CostaD
- 5G. MichailidisD
- 13D. GiannoulisD
- 20C. ZafeirisM
- 18K. JakićM
- 14A. ŽivkovićM
- 16O. UgresićM
- 11TaisonM
- 27C. NdiayeF
- 2M. CamaraM
- 24S. BanzaF
- 52D. ChatsidisF
- 6ElustondoD
- 4P. HatzidiakosD
- 23T. LouchetM
- 56A. MythouF
- 81V. NikolakoulisG
- 7B. SantamaríaM
- 33G. AthanasiadisG
- 2P. VourosD
- 21PiñaD
- 69Y. RocheD
- 30Carles SoriaM
- 90V. SourlisM
- 8N. RadojaM
- 31NanuM
- 11Ivi LópezM
- 18R. NizetM
- 43Pedro MarquesF
- 3Vitor MeerD
- 17Nikolaos AnastasiadisM
- 4S. ChaklaD
- 22K. KaïbouéD
- 27M. KrainzM
- 9K. KushtaF
- 23Daniel Muñoz NavasD
- 12Xande SilvaF
- 6CarlisM
Form going into PAOK vs Iraklis 1908
PAOK
Super League 1
- L1-3Kalamata12 October 2026
Iraklis 1908
Super League 1
- W2-0Levadiakos11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | PAOK | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 19 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: PAOK and Iraklis 1908
PAOK
GoalsAssists
- C. Ndiaye40
- A. Živković35
- D. Pelkas30
Iraklis 1908
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Marques31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
PAOK beat Iraklis 1908 2–1. The model had made a win for PAOK its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Pedro Marques 49' for Iraklis 1908, Simon Banza 62' for PAOK, Giannis Michailidis 90+2' for PAOK. Sent off: Yohan Roche (Iraklis 1908) 90'. On expected goals it finished 2.10–0.84.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave PAOK a 87.6% chance to finish in the top four: 90.6% after a win, 85.4% after a draw, 80.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 90.6%, 3 points higher than before the match.
For Iraklis 1908 the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.9% going in: 10.6% after a win, 6.3% after a draw, 4.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.2%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.