18 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Super League 1 prediction & result

Panetolikos Stadium, Agrinio
Referee: Matsoukas, Michalis
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Panetolikos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Panetolikos, 29% draw, 52% Olympiakos Piraeus — fair odds of 5.26, 3.45 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Olympiakos Piraeus at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Panetolikos0%Draw1%Olympiakos Piraeus99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Joel Roca
17'
⚽Joel Roca
🔁Gustav Granathout: Marvelous Nakamba
22'
Kwadwo Opoku
24'
38'
🔁Kostas Fortounisout: Gelson Martins
🔁Charis Mavriasout: Athanasios Prodromitis
45'
🔁Moussa Djenepoout: Novica Eraković
56'
63'
🔁Joel Rocaout: Jota Silva
63'
🔁Gustavo Sáout: Chiquinho
Athanasios Prodromitis
68'
73'
⚽Chiquinhoassist: Jota Silva
🔁Mateo Mejiaout: Kosta Aleksic
80'
🔁Amine Bassiout: Lampros Smyrlis
80'
80'
🔁Marius Mouandilmadjiout: Armando González
80'
🔁Gustavo Puertaout: Santiago Hezze

Match stats — Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus

46%Possession54%
13Shots21
2On target7
5Corners3
1.31xG2.52

Goals against chances

Panetolikos0 from 1.31 xGless than the chances were worth
Olympiakos Piraeus2 from 2.52 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Panetolikos 4-4-2
  • 23V. XenopoulosG
  • 35C. MavriasD
  • 2G. GranathD
  • 49N. StajićD
  • 15Christian ManriqueD
  • 90K. OpokuM
  • 22Diego EstebanM
  • 8K. ThymianisM
  • 12M. DjenepoM
  • 9José Mateo Mejía PiedrahitaF
  • 10A. BassiF
Substitutes
  • 7L. SmyrlisF
  • 5A. ProdromitisD
  • 11S. SoumahF
  • 4E. OlssonD
  • 14K. AleksićF
  • 65A. ApostolopoulosD
  • 20Youssouph BadjiF
  • 19A. BregouM
  • 44N. ErakovićM
Coach: Y. Anastasiou
Olympiakos Piraeus 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. OrtegaG
  • 27M. PedersenD
  • 45P. RetsosD
  • 5L. PirolaD
  • 71N. TiknizyanD
  • 15G. PuertaM
  • 19R. FreulerM
  • 73Joel RocaM
  • 8Gustavo SáM
  • 7K. FortounisM
  • 99M. MouandilmadjiF
Substitutes
  • 20Jota SilvaF
  • 34A. GonzálezF
  • 32S. HezzeM
  • 22ChiquinhoM
  • 6David CarmoD
  • 70S. OnyemaechiD
  • 31B. PopovićG
  • 16L. ScipioniM
  • 4Z. SmajlovićD
Coach: Imanol Alguacil

Form going into Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Panetolikos

Super League 1

  • L0-2away to Kifisia11 October 2026

Olympiakos Piraeus

Super League 1

  • W1-0Panathinaikos11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Panetolikos10307820-129
2Olympiakos Piraeus10721165+1123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus

  • 21 February 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 2–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
  • 30 November 2025Panetolikos 0–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
  • 6 January 2025Panetolikos 0–2 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
  • 15 September 2024Olympiakos Piraeus 0–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
  • 28 February 2024Panetolikos 1–2 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
  • 25 November 2023Olympiakos Piraeus 3–1 PanetolikosSuper League 1

Leading scorers: Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus

Panetolikos

No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Olympiakos Piraeus

GoalsAssists

  • Jota Silva51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Olympiakos Piraeus won 2–0 at Panetolikos. The model had made a win for Olympiakos Piraeus its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Joel Roca 17' for Olympiakos Piraeus, Chiquinho 73' for Olympiakos Piraeus. On expected goals it finished 1.31–2.52.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Panetolikos a 16.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.6% after a win, 14.3% after a draw, 18.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.4%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

For Olympiakos Piraeus the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 84.0% going in: 87.4% after a win, 81.5% after a draw, 78.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.4%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Panetolikos v Olympiakos Piraeus has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 23% / 31% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 19% / 29% / 52%: the biggest move is Olympiakos Piraeus's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Panetolikos win19%▼ −4
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Olympiakos Piraeus win52%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.