18 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis Super League 1 prediction & result

Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Athens
Referee: Fotios Daoulas
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Kifisia 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Kifisia, 30% draw, 34% Aris Thessalonikis — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kifisia at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kifisia0%Draw4%Aris Thessalonikis96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jeremy Antonisse
19'
29'
•Bruma
S. Leto
31'
32'
⚽Bruma (pen)
⚽Ángelo Sagalassist: Jorge Pombo
53'
64'
Boško Šutalo
72'
🔁Brumaout: Othman Boussaid
72'
🔁Tino Kadewereout: Rafa Mir
🔁dimitrios theodoridisout: Apóstolos Christópoulos
73'
🔁Ángelo Sagalout: Georgios Kyriopoulos
73'
Roshon van Eijma
76'
79'
Benjamin Garré
83'
Fabiano Leismann
🔁Jeremy Antonisseout: Gerson Liliano Saches Sousa
84'
🔁Jorge Pomboout: Bernardo Martins
84'
89'
⚽Benjamin Garré
🔁Seedy Jagneout: Jordi Mboula
90'
90+3'
🔁Benjamin Garréout: Noah Fadiga
90+3'
🔁Christian Kouaméout: Fredrik Jensen

Match stats — Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis

52%Possession48%
13Shots10
2On target4
5Corners4
0xG0

Goals against chances

Kifisia1 from 0.00 xGmore than the chances were worth
Aris Thessalonikis2 from 0.00 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kifisia 4-2-3-1
  • 99M. RamírezG
  • 48Tiago MansoD
  • 34C. JoliboisD
  • 24R. van EijmaD
  • 23L. AbandaD
  • 19I. JagneM
  • 17K. RoukounakisM
  • 28Á. SagalM
  • 6Jorge PomboM
  • 7J. AntonisseM
  • 9Dimitris TheodoridisF
Substitutes
  • 72A. ChristópoulosF
  • 2K. ApostolakisM
  • 33Hugo SousaD
  • 18G. KyriopoulosF
  • 44Vangelis ManganasM
  • 11Jordi MboulaF
  • 5A. PetkovD
  • 26K. PolykratisD
  • 1F. RobertsG
Coach: S. Leto
Aris Thessalonikis 4-2-3-1
  • 33Ricardo VelhoG
  • 2J. PétrisD
  • 4FabianoD
  • 44B. ŠutaloD
  • 3O. RichardsD
  • 18M. HonglaM
  • 10U. RačićM
  • 7B. GarréM
  • 8C. KouaméM
  • 77BrumaM
  • 9T. KadewereF
Substitutes
  • 20T. Dele-BashiruM
  • 24Apostolos BarbopoulosG
  • 49O. BoussaidM
  • 41Konstantinos CharoupasM
  • 27N. FadigaD
  • 6K. GalanopoulosM
  • 97F. JensenM
  • 21L. MajkićG
  • 17Rafa MirF
Coach: M. Grigoriou

Form going into Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis

Kifisia

Super League 1

  • W2-0Panetolikos11 October 2026

Aris Thessalonikis

Super League 1

  • W3-2Volos NFC11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Kifisia104241515014
5Aris Thessalonikis106131617-119

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis

  • 22 February 2026Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 KifisiaSuper League 1
  • 20 September 2025Kifisia 0–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
  • 27 January 2024Kifisia 0–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
  • 1 October 2023Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 KifisiaSuper League 1

Leading scorers: Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis

Kifisia

GoalsAssists

  • Jorge Pombo42
  • Á. Sagal41

Aris Thessalonikis

GoalsAssists

  • Fabiano40
  • C. Kouamé30
  • T. Kadewere30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Aris Thessalonikis won 2–1 at Kifisia. The model had leaned towards a win for Kifisia at 36% and given a win for Aris Thessalonikis 34%. The goals: Bruma (penalty) 32' for Aris Thessalonikis, Ángelo Sagal 53' for Kifisia, Benjamin Garré 89' for Aris Thessalonikis. On expected goals it finished 0.00–0.00.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kifisia a 16.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 10.1% after a win, 16.5% after a draw, 22.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.2%, 5.8 points higher than before the match.

For Aris Thessalonikis the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.9% going in: 3.1% after a win, 5.5% after a draw, 8.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.1%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kifisia v Aris Thessalonikis has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 34% / 32% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 36% / 30% / 34%: the biggest move is Kifisia's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Kifisia win36%▲ +2
  2. Draw30%▼ −2
  3. Aris Thessalonikis win34%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.