Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Panathinaikos 5-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Before kick-off the model made it 68% Panathinaikos, 21% draw, 11% Asteras Tripolis — fair odds of 1.47, 4.76 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Panathinaikos at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Iñaki PeñaG
- 2D. CalabriaD
- 6S. de VrijD
- 55R. van DrongelenD
- 5A. Salah-EddineD
- 42K. KangwaM
- 26I. LouzaM
- 99L. GarcíaM
- 21A. OunahiM
- 10Santino AndinoM
- 9C. DessersF
- 8Adriano JagušićM
- 4Pedro ChirivellaM
- 70K. KotsarisG
- 7A. TettehF
- 19T. TsaprasM
- 20V. TabordaF
- 12L. ChavesG
- 77G. KiriakopoulosD
- 18S. KontourisM
- 1N. PapadopoulosG
- 74D. LaskarisD
- 16F. BrorssonD
- 6K. ChrisopoulosD
- 27G. KotsirasM
- 10Eder GonzálezM
- 14J. ChiccoM
- 28Alex MéndezM
- 7J. BartoloF
- 9F. MachedaF
- 11K. KetuF
- 8I. BouzoukisM
- 61V. ChatziemmanouilG
- 64P. DeligiannidisD
- 20N. KaltsasF
- 21D. KourbelisM
- 51Giannis KriarasG
- 75B. Mbunga KimpiokaF
- 19F. OrozcoM
- 44A. PapakanellosM
Form going into Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis
Panathinaikos
Super League 1
- L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus11 October 2026
Asteras Tripolis
Super League 1
- W2-1Atromitos10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 27 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis
- 22 March 2026Asteras Tripolis 1–2 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 26 October 2025Panathinaikos 2–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 8 December 2024Asteras Tripolis 0–1 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 18 August 2024Panathinaikos 0–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 21 January 2024Panathinaikos 2–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 28 September 2023Asteras Tripolis 1–4 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and Asteras Tripolis
Panathinaikos
GoalsAssists
- A. Tetteh51
- C. Dessers40
- V. Taborda31
Asteras Tripolis
GoalsAssists
- F. Macheda31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Panathinaikos beat Asteras Tripolis 5–1. The model had made a win for Panathinaikos its most likely outcome, at 68%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Stefan de Vrij 27' for Panathinaikos, Imrân Louza 31' for Panathinaikos, Antonis Papakanellos 60' for Asteras Tripolis, Cyriel Dessers 62' for Panathinaikos, Davide Calabria 72' for Panathinaikos, Andrews Tetteh 83' for Panathinaikos. On expected goals it finished 5.80–0.91.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Panathinaikos a 32.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 34.0% after a win, 26.9% after a draw, 22.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.0%, 2 points higher than before the match.
For Asteras Tripolis the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 37.4% going in: 24.0% after a win, 33.9% after a draw, 39.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.4%, 2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Panathinaikos v Asteras Tripolis has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 61% / 24% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 68% / 21% / 11%: the biggest move is Panathinaikos's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Panathinaikos win68%▲ +7
- Draw21%▼ −3
- Asteras Tripolis win11%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.