18 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta Liga I prediction & result

Stadionul Ion Oblemenco, Craiova
Referee: Iulian Calin
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Universitatea Craiova 2-0 Farul Constanta.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% Universitatea Craiova, 21% draw, 13% Farul Constanta — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Universitatea Craiova at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Universitatea Craiova99%Draw1%Farul Constanta0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Simon Elisorassist: David Matei
16'
45'
🔁Gustavo Marinsout: Narek Grigoryan
45'
🔁Răzvan Marinceanout: Alexandru Goncear
47'
Ionuț Vână
Luca Băsceanu
50'
🔁Ronaldo Romario Websterout: Nicușor Bancu
56'
🔁Samuel Telesout: Alexandru Cicâldău
57'
🔁Luca Băsceanuout: Stefan Baiaram
57'
🔁Baptiste Rouxout: Vladimir Screciu
70'
74'
🔁Tony Njikeout: Nicolas Popescu
🔁Simon Elisorout: Assad Al-Hamlawi
76'
77'
🔁Ionuț Larieout: Valentin Constantin Ticu
⚽Oleksandr Romanchukassist: Alexandru Cicâldău
87'
Nikola Stevanović
90'
90+1'
Nicolas Popescu

Match stats — Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta

48%Possession52%
16Shots8
7On target2
3Corners2
1.74xG0.61

Goals against chances

Universitatea Craiova2 from 1.74 xGabout what the chances were worth
Farul Constanta0 from 0.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Universitatea Craiova 3-4-3
  • 21L. PopescuG
  • 3O. RomanchukD
  • 24N. StevanovićD
  • 5B. RouxD
  • 17C. MoraM
  • 23Samuel TelesM
  • 8T. BăluțăM
  • 31R. WebsterM
  • 30D. MateiF
  • 22S. ElisorF
  • 29L. BăsceanuF
Substitutes
  • 10Ș. BaiaramM
  • 11N. BancuD
  • 19Heriberto TavaresD
  • 20A. CicâldăuM
  • 4A. CrețuM
  • 1A. MaximG
  • 7S. NsimbaF
  • 18M. RădulescuM
  • 16João LameiraM
Coach: Filipe Coelho
Farul Constanta 3-4-3
  • 12R. MunteanuG
  • 6V. DicanD
  • 17I. LarieD
  • 4Gustavo MarinsD
  • 24S. BouzamouchaM
  • 23T. NjikéM
  • 70M. AhlinviM
  • 11C. GaneaM
  • 8I. VînăF
  • 99Răzvan MarinceanF
  • 20E. RădăslăvescuF
Substitutes
  • 2D. MafteiD
  • 33João FerreiraD
  • 9M. HyseniF
  • 30N. GrigoryanF
  • 29A. GoncearF
  • 1A. BuzbuchiG
  • 3V. ȚicuD
  • 71R. TănasăF
  • 27Hassane Rachid Seyd Sabour TraoréD
Coach: Ovidiu Sabău

Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta

Universitatea Craiova

Liga I

  • W1-0away to Csikszereda11 October 2026

Farul Constanta

Liga I

  • W3-1Petrolul Ploiesti11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Universitatea Craiova1510323410+2433
6Farul Constanta156632422+224

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta

  • 1 February 2026Farul Constanta 4–1 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
  • 14 September 2025Universitatea Craiova 2–0 Farul ConstantaLiga I
  • 1 March 2025Universitatea Craiova 1–0 Farul ConstantaLiga I
  • 28 October 2024Farul Constanta 3–2 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
  • 13 May 2024Farul Constanta 3–3 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
  • 12 April 2024Universitatea Craiova 1–2 Farul ConstantaLiga I

Leading scorers: Universitatea Craiova and Farul Constanta

Universitatea Craiova

GoalsAssists

  • S. Elisor90
  • A. Al Hamlawi70

Farul Constanta

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ahlinvi71
  • E. Rădăslăvescu53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Universitatea Craiova beat Farul Constanta 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Universitatea Craiova at 66%. The goals: Simon Elisor 16' for Universitatea Craiova, Oleksandr Romanchuk 87' for Universitatea Craiova. On expected goals it finished 1.74–0.61.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Universitatea Craiova a 41.9% chance to finish top of the regular season: 44.4% after a win, 34.6% after a draw, 30.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.4%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

For Farul Constanta the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 10.0% going in: 17.3% after a win, 10.7% after a draw, 8.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.5%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Universitatea Craiova v Farul Constanta has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 60% / 24% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 66% / 21% / 13%: the biggest move is Universitatea Craiova's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Universitatea Craiova win66%▲ +6
  2. Draw21%▼ −3
  3. Farul Constanta win13%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.