Faroe Islands
vs
Moldova
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Faroe Islands 1–0 Moldova
The model makes it 47% Faroe Islands, 28% draw, 25% Moldova — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Faroe Islands 1.52, Moldova 0.94.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Edge to Faroe Islands: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Faroe Islands's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Moldova's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Faroe Islands are 3rd on 5 points from 5 games; Moldova are 2nd on 7 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
- Faroe Islands are unbeaten in their last 5 games (0 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Slovakia.
- Moldova have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Kazakhstan.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 1 win each, 3 draws; the most recent, 29 September 2026, ended Moldova 1–1 Faroe Islands.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Faroe Islands vs Moldova
Has the model earned this number?
Faroe Islands at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Faroe Islands vs Moldova
Faroe Islands
UEFA Nations League
- D2-2away to Slovakia13 November 2026
- D2-2away to Kazakhstan6 October 2026
- D1-1Slovakia2 October 2026
- D1-1away to Moldova29 September 2026
- D1-1Kazakhstan26 September 2026
Moldova
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1Kazakhstan13 November 2026
- L0-4Slovakia6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Kazakhstan2 October 2026
- D1-1Faroe Islands29 September 2026
- L0-2away to Slovakia26 September 2026
What these results say
- Faroe Islands went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Faroe Islands did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Faroe Islands scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Moldova conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Faroe Islands | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| 2 | Moldova | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Faroe Islands vs Moldova
Faroe Islands and Moldova have met 5 times in the records we hold, they have won 1 each, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Moldova on 29 Sep 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faroe Islands | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Moldova | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
Between them these 5 meetings produced 10 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 29 Sep 2026
UEFA Nations LeagueMoldova 1–1 Faroe Islands - 10 Sep 2023
Euro Championship - QualificationFaroe Islands 0–1 Moldova - 24 Mar 2023
Euro Championship - QualificationMoldova 1–1 Faroe Islands - 7 Sep 2021
World Cup - Qualification EuropeFaroe Islands 2–1 Moldova - 25 Mar 2021
World Cup - Qualification EuropeMoldova 1–1 Faroe Islands
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Faroe Islands' attack rates 21% above Moldova's, and Faroe Islands concede 19% fewer than Moldova. That gives Faroe Islands the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Faroe Islands | 0.75 | 1.21 |
| Moldova | 0.62 | 1.50 |
Leading scorers: Faroe Islands and Moldova
Faroe Islands
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Moldova
GoalsAssists
- Petru Popescu30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on Faroe Islands v Moldova has moved
First published on 2 Nov at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is Faroe Islands's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Faroe Islands win47%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Moldova win25%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Faroe Islands the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Faroe Islands against 0.94 for Moldova. Faroe Islands's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.5 for Moldova.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 47% for Faroe Islands to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Faroe Islands to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Faroe Islands's ratings add 5 points and Moldova's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level37%−1
- Faroe Islands's ratings42%+5
- Moldova's ratings47%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.