17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund Eliteserien prediction & result

Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansund
Referee: Mischa Kellerhals, Norway
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Kristiansund BK 1-4 Aalesund.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Kristiansund BK, 25% draw, 37% Aalesund — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kristiansund BK at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kristiansund BK0%Draw1%Aalesund99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Marcus Reed
⚽David Tufekcicassist: Wilfred George Igor
27'
36'
⚽Marcus Reedassist: Mathias Christensen
61'
🔁Sander Erik Kartumout: Endre Osenbroch
65'
⚽Marcus Reed
🔁Sander Svendsenout: Gustav Ørsøe Christensen
66'
67'
🔁Marcus Reedout: Paul Ngongo
67'
🔁Uba Charles Nwokomaout: Jakob Nyland Örsahl
David Tufekcic
69'
76'
⚽Paul Ngongoassist: Mathias Christensen
79'
Endre Osenbroch
🔁Wilfred George Igorout: Max Normann Williamsen
80'
🔁Julius Mar Juliusson out: Adrian Kurd Rønning
80'
80'
🔁Isak Gabriel Skotheimout: Stefano Vecchia
🔁Zymer Bytyqiout: John Kitolano
80'
88'
⚽Mathias Christensenassist: Stefano Vecchia
John Kitolano
90+2'

Match stats — Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund

59%Possession41%
15Shots16
3On target8
4Corners8
1.37xG1.9

Goals against chances

Kristiansund BK1 from 1.37 xGabout what the chances were worth
Aalesund4 from 1.90 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kristiansund BK 5-4-1
  • 1M. LansingG
  • 59M. ElviusD
  • 4J. JúlíussonD
  • 6J. IsaksenD
  • 5D. UlvestadD
  • 16D. TufekcicD
  • 7S. SvendsenM
  • 10H. BrusethM
  • 20W. IgorM
  • 11Z. BytyqiM
  • 19L. AlvheimF
Substitutes
  • 24G. ChristensenF
  • 3F. FlexD
  • 22H. HaugenD
  • 25J. KitolanoD
  • 27A. RønningF
  • 12A. SætherG
  • 14S. SkeideM
  • 23T. SvendsenM
  • 17M. WilliamsenD
Coach: A. Skiri
Aalesund 5-3-2
  • 1Luca PodlechG
  • 7K. NessøD
  • 2M. AndresenD
  • 28D. MbackeD
  • 3Ó. GuðmundssonD
  • 14U. CharlesD
  • 21M. ChristensenM
  • 18E. HagenM
  • 19S. KartumM
  • 8I. SkotheimF
  • 27H. M. ReedF
Substitutes
  • 23S. VecchiaM
  • 15E. OsenbrochM
  • 16J. ØrsahlD
  • 9P. NgongoF
  • 17E. MyrlidF
  • 26T. LarsenG
  • 10M. KristensenM
  • 22E. EngqvistD
  • 38T. LeikangerM
Coach: K. Rekdal

Form going into Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund

Kristiansund BK

Eliteserien

  • L1-3away to Bodo/Glimt10 October 2026

Aalesund

Eliteserien

  • L2-4Sarpsborg 08 FF11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Kristiansund BK2675143051-2126
15Aalesund2659124560-1524

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund

  • 27 June 2026Kristiansund BK 0–3 AalesundFriendlies Clubs
  • 26 April 2026Aalesund 1–1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • 30 January 2026Aalesund 1–0 Kristiansund BKFriendlies Clubs
  • 23 March 2025Kristiansund BK 2–1 AalesundFriendlies Clubs
  • 24 March 2024Kristiansund BK 1–1 AalesundFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 February 2024Aalesund 1–3 Kristiansund BKFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Kristiansund BK and Aalesund

Kristiansund BK

GoalsAssists

  • L. Alvheim120

Aalesund

GoalsAssists

  • M. Christensen116
  • H. M. Reed83

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Aalesund won 4–1 at Kristiansund BK. The model had leaned towards a win for Kristiansund BK at 38% and given a win for Aalesund 37%. The goals: David Tufekcic 27' for Kristiansund BK, Marcus Reed 36' for Aalesund, Marcus Reed 65' for Aalesund, Paul Ngongo 76' for Aalesund, Mathias Christensen 88' for Aalesund. On expected goals it finished 1.37–1.90.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kristiansund BK a 74.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 61.8% after a win, 77.0% after a draw, 87.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.2%, 13 points higher than before the match.

For Aalesund the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 66.2% going in: 50.3% after a win, 69.0% after a draw, 79.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.3%, 15.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kristiansund BK v Aalesund has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 36% / 27% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 25% / 37%: the biggest move is Kristiansund BK's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Kristiansund BK win38%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Aalesund win37%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.