18 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Molde vs Start Eliteserien prediction & result

Aker Stadion, Molde
Referee: Stian Rovig Sletner
Full time6 – 1

Final score: Molde 6-1 Start.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% Molde, 20% draw, 16% Start — fair odds of 1.56, 5.00 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Molde at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Molde99%Draw1%Start0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
Santino Samuyiwa
⚽Sander Hestetun Kilenassist: Caleb Sery
29'
38'
Erlend Segberg
⚽Kristian Lonebu (pen)
39'
45'
🔁Santino Samuyiwaout: Nikolaos Koutsakos
52'
•Nikolaos Koutsakos
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl
53'
54'
⚽Nikolaos Koutsakos (pen)
54'
⚽John Olav Norheimassist: Mikael Ugland
⚽Caleb Seryassist: Sander Hestetun Kilen
56'
⚽Sander Hestetun Kilenassist: Emil Breivik
65'
🔁Mathias Lovikout: Niklas Ödegard
67'
🔁Mats Møller Dæhliout: Daniel Daga
67'
🔁Caleb Seryout: Birk Risa
67'
71'
🔁Mikael Uglandout: nikola jojic
Eirik Haugan
72'
⚽Sander Hestetun Kilen
76'
🔁Sander Hestetun Kilenout: Oskar Spiten Nysaeter
77'
⚽Emil Breivikassist: Niklas Ödegard
79'
🔁Kristian Lonebuout: Trent Kone-Doherty
81'
86'
🔁Erlend Dahl Reitanout: Altin Ujkani

Match stats — Molde vs Start

68%Possession32%
21Shots10
12On target3
5Corners6
3.71xG1.76

Goals against chances

Molde6 from 3.71 xGmore than the chances were worth
Start1 from 1.76 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Molde 4-4-2
  • 22A. PosiadałaG
  • 25M. LinnesD
  • 19E. HauganD
  • 27F. DahlD
  • 8M. LøvikD
  • 11C. Zady SeryM
  • 17M. Møller DæhliM
  • 23S. GranaasM
  • 16S. KilenM
  • 20K. LonebuF
  • 10E. BreivikF
Substitutes
  • 9J. AbdulaiF
  • 28V. BenderM
  • 30D. DagaM
  • 26S. KabiniD
  • 24Trent Toure Kone DohertyF
  • 12P. LervikG
  • 6N. ØdegårdM
  • 33B. RisaD
  • 21O. Spiten-NysæterF
Coach: S. Tjelmeland
Start 5-3-2
  • 26M. SjøengG
  • 27O. ToureD
  • 29E. ReitanD
  • 5S. GranheimD
  • 6J. NorheimD
  • 12D. DashaevD
  • 10S. MvouéM
  • 23E. SegbergM
  • 18M. UglandM
  • 20H. LorentzenF
  • 35S. SamuyiwaF
Substitutes
  • 24S. Strand-KolbjørnsenG
  • 2F. PålerudD
  • 4J. MeyerD
  • 9N. KoutsakosF
  • 8N. JojićF
  • 3A. UjkaniD
  • 17J. CorneliusF
Coach: A. Karadas

Form going into Molde vs Start

Molde

Eliteserien

  • D2-2away to Lillestrom11 October 2026

Start

Eliteserien

  • L2-4Ham-Kam11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Molde2613586444+2044
16Start2654172759-3219

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Molde vs Start

  • 19 April 2026Start 1–1 MoldeEliteserien
  • 5 August 2020Molde 5–0 StartEliteserien
  • 24 June 2020Start 2–3 MoldeEliteserien
  • 29 October 2018Start 1–3 MoldeEliteserien
  • 27 May 2018Molde 3–1 StartEliteserien
  • 17 July 2016Molde 2–2 StartEliteserien

Leading scorers: Molde and Start

Molde

GoalsAssists

  • K. Lonebu152
  • E. Breivik1010
  • E. Hestad82

Start

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Molde beat Start 6–1. The model had made a win for Molde its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Sander Hestetun Kilen 29' for Molde, Kristian Lonebu (penalty) 39' for Molde, John Olav Norheim 54' for Start, Caleb Sery 56' for Molde, Sander Hestetun Kilen 65' for Molde, Sander Hestetun Kilen 76' for Molde, Emil Breivik 79' for Molde. On expected goals it finished 3.71–1.76.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Molde a 48.1% chance to finish in the top four: 53.8% after a win, 35.0% after a draw, 31.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.8%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.

For Start the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 95.5% going in: 89.0% after a win, 96.4% after a draw, 97.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 97.0%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Molde v Start has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 55% / 24% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 64% / 20% / 16%: the biggest move is Molde's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Molde win64%▲ +9
  2. Draw20%▼ −4
  3. Start win16%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.